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Sunday, October 4, 2015

Is it the best moment buy stocks?

Ibov had an excellent Friday earning +3% after having 4 bad days before that. As you can see on the chart, 44k points is an important support and one more time Ibov stopped at that level. Also, you can notice that we continue in a downward trend, but this can come to an end if Ibov closes next week above 46k points.
The moment in Brazil continues practically the same, with the exception that the President is trying new things to overcome the crisis, and I believe that is why Ibov earned +3% on Friday. But, investors will only buy heavily (and prices will go up when this happen) if they see continuity on the process.

I will invest in one stock this week (if it achieves my trigger if course).

EQTL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 34.93 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 32.93

Have a great week!

Leo.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

What to do when the market goes down?

Ibov is presenting a lot of volatility in the previous weeks. Last week was bad and IBOV is really close to a very important support at 44k points as you can see in the chart.
The worst part is how far Ibov is from the Moving Average of 200 periods (green line).

Brazil continues with the same problem (corruption) and that is why investors are not buying... There are good stocks, but there is a big risk in Brazil as a country and until we solve this, the best thing to do is wait and just watch the market.

It is been a month that I'm out and I'm happy because the market is going down...

Let's see what happens in the next week.

See you.

Leo.

Monday, September 7, 2015

Have we achieved the lowest level of the year?

IBOV had a lateral week, falling a little bit, which is normal after achieving an important support the week before. I continue with my opinion that we probably achieved the lowest point of the week and I'm waiting for good opportunities to buy stocks.

Last week I tried and I didn't get a good result... PSSA3 didn't start (ok), but EQTL3 started and achieved Stop Loss during the week.

Next week I will be more conservative and I will be outside the market.

Have an excellent week.

Leo.

Sunday, August 30, 2015

Is it time to buy stocks?

In my opinion, we achieved the lowest point of the year in Brazil. IBOV achieved 42.7k points, and, after that, went up to close at 47.1k points.

I don't have any stock in my portfolio right now (we sold all stocks as I described in my previous posts) and I think this is a good time to buy.

I will be conservative and buy less than the usual and I will invest in stocks that I think they are solid (we were investing in these stocks before, but we sold because they were presenting a bad momentum as all stocks in the market).

PSSA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 33.72 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 31.94
EQTL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 35.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.88

Have a great week!

Leo.

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Market fell -10% and I haven't sold. What to do now?

As expected IBOV continues going down. This is the third week in a row, but, the downward trend started 5 weeks ago and that is why we closed practically all our trades, when we could have some profit. If we had kept them we would be losing money now and nobody likes losing money on bad investments. IBOV opened at 47.5k and closed at 45.7k points, losing -3.7% in one week. This is the lowest point since March/2014.

Our stocks:
BRFS3. Let's increase Stop Loss to 67.22. If stock goes down, we still have around 6% of profit. If it goes up, we keep it. In the same period IBOV lost -12%.
GETI3. Let's increase Stop Loss to 16.14. If it goes down, we stil have 8% of profit. IBOV lost -20% on the same period of this trade.
VLID3 and GETI3, sold during the week as I explained on last post.

What to do if you have stocks and you haven't sold yet?

Well, I always prefer to use Stop Loss and sell fast. My Stop Loss already tell me the maximum I can lose in one investment. The problem is that many people don't use Stop Loss and don't limit their losses. Then, they say that they are investing for the long term and will keep the stock... (I did this in the past). In my case (and I think this may be happening to you in this situation) is that the pain gets higher and higher every week and you regret you haven't sold yet. My suggestion: sell and relax. I prefer that you have the money back on our account and stop losing (because it may go down even more). If you decide to keep it, you become a person "cheering" for the stock. There is nothing saying that it will go up, but you prefer to think that it will... I prefer that you sell and wait for the correct time to buy the stock again.

I will stay one more week just watching the market.

Have a great week.

Leo.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Stocks are going down. What to do now?

As I was expecting, Ibov continued the downward movement. It opened at 48.6k points and closed at the minimum at 47.5k losing -2.2%.

We made the right decision selling PSSA3 last week, because it fell even more this week and we sold then at the right moment. EQTL3 increased a little bit and may bee a good investment for us if it confirms its momentum.

BRFS3 and GEIT3 continue in upward trend and we will continue with them in our portfolio. But, VLID3 and CTIP3 are going lateral trend. I prefer to increase Stop Loss of VLID3 to 47.08 and CTIP3 to 33.44. IF they go up next week, awesome. If they go down, we still have some profit.

I will continue with my money on fixed income this week, waiting for better definition in the stock market.

Have a great week.

Leo.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

80% of profitable trades while benchmark going down

IBOV had a terrible week, opening at 50.8k points and closing at 48.5k points losing -4.5% in just 5 days... Downward trend and things can get worse...

I'm increasing the amount I invest in brazilian treasury bonds (such as LFT) because it is paying 14.25% per year risk-free. How is this possible? Inflation... For brazilians, this is terrible because central bank is increasing the interest rate to try to control the inflation. BUT, if you are a foreigner investor, this makes a lot of sense. So, I imagine that the big funds are getting the money out of the stock market and buying treasury bonds.

This is what I'm going to do this week!

We have an excellent track record because we only invest in stocks that we believe they will go up. In 2 years, we got more than 75% of profitable trades. In 2015 we got more than 80% of profitable trades and IBOV is down in the same period.

This week, we sold our 3 positions in PSSA3. The first one with aprox. 30% of profit, which is amazing! Why not holding more time? Because I think there is too much risk... Also, we sold our positions in EQTL3 for the same reason. We will buy these stocks again when we see a great opportunity.

These are the stocks that we still have in our portfolio
                        %                IBOV (in the same period)
BRFS3         +10.9              -6.3
BRFS3         +11.4              -7.2
GETI3          +13.8             -15.1
BRFS3          +9.7               -9.2
VLID3          +0.5               -10.0
CTIP3           +3.4               -9.9

Have an excellent week!

Leo.

Sunday, August 2, 2015

Best stocks to invest in Brazil

IBOV partially recovered from the big loss that happened the previous week. Last week it opened at 49.2k points and closed at 50.8k, earning +3.3%. I'm still cautious about Ibov.

Last week I posted about the stocks that we have in our portfolio. we sold 2 of the stocks because they achieved our new stop loss (TAEE11 and LREN3). All other stocks recovered and BRFS3 earned almost +10% in just one week.

Next week I will post another table that compares our stocks to IBOV.

For next week, there is only one stock that I'm planning to invest (if the price achieves my trigger)

PSSA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 38.95 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 36.87

Have a great week and I hope you earn a lot of money this week!

Leo.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

IBOV missed important support. What to do now?

After 8 weeks IBOV missed the support at 52k points, falling down -5.9% to 49.2k points. This is a bad signal because Ibov is in a downward trend after this week.

In my personal opinion, this is happening because there is an expectation that Brazilian Central Bank will continue increasing Interest rate to control inflation. This attracts more investments to fixed income instead of stocks.

This week, I'm not planning to invest in new stocks. Let's focus on the profit that we have in the stocks in our portfolio. If they achieve our "Stop Loss" price we will sell the stock and have profit very similar to first column. If it goes up, it is even better.

                       %              IBOV (at same period)
PSSA3       +30.7            -0.1                 Increase Stop Loss to 36.18
BRFS3       +5.6              -5.0                 Increase Stop Loss to 66.44
BRFS3       +6.0              -5.9                 Just like previous
GETI3        +14.7            -13.9               Perfect movement. Let's leave the way it is.
TAEE11     -0.1               -8.8                 Increase Stop Loss to 19.94
BRFS3       +4.4              -8.0                 Just like previous BRFS3
EQTL3       +3.5             -8.5                  Increase Stop Loss to 34.68
LREN3       -2.4              -8.3                 Increase Stop Loss to 105.79
PSSA3       +2.1              -9.0                 Just like previous PSSA3
VLID3       +2.3              -8.8                 Don't change anything this week.
CTIP3        +4.2              -8.6                 Don't change anything this week
EQTL3      -3.2               -6.4                 Just like previous EQTL3

Next week I hope to find stocks that have more than 75% of change of achieving profit.

Have a great week.

Leo.

Sunday, July 12, 2015

All Investments beating the markets

IBOV closed practically at the same price it opened, after falling -2% during the week and recovering on Friday. Can we say 52k points is a good support? Probably yes. So, let's wait and see if IBOV goes up next week.

Last week, my forecast was about EQTL3. The trade started and earned +1.5% in just 4 days (there was a holiday) but we will only sell 70% of what we bought when it achieves +2%. Let's wait one more week.

Last week I promised a summary of the stocks that we have 30% of what we bought. You can find the day I posted all forecasts just reading the blog.

                   Stock (%)      IBOV (% in the same period)
PSSA3         +43.1             + 6.7
BRFS3         + 8.6             + 1.4
BRFS3         + 9.0             + 0.5
GETI3         +11.9             - 8.0
TAEE11      + 3.3              - 2.6
BRFS3        + 7.3              - 1.7
EQTL3        + 6.4              - 2.2
LREN3        + 5.5              - 2.1
BBDC4       + 0.9              - 2.8
PSSA3        +11.7             - 2.8
VLID3        + 1.4              - 2.6
CTIP3         + 3.9              - 2.4

For next week.
GRND3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 17.18 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 16.33
(this trade has more than 70% of achieving profit according to my back-tests).

Have a great week!

Leo.





Sunday, July 5, 2015

+44.1% of profit in 5 months

IBOV didn't have a good week, losing -2.5%. But, our investments are up one more time!

2 weeks ago, we invested in PSSA3. It earned +7.3% in the first week and after 2 weeks it earned + 12.5%. Excellent!

Last week I posted 2 forecasts (click here to read forecasts):
 - VLID3 earned +5.6% in just 5 days
 - CTIP3 earned +3.5 in just 5 days
We continue having more than 75% of profitable trades.

Another great news is that our first position in PSSA3 (bought almost 5 months ago) achieved +44.1% of profit! (Forecast posted on Feb 15th - read forecast here). This is perfect! In the same period, IBOV earned +6.5%.

All other stocks that we previously invested are beating IBOV. You can find a summary on previous posts and I will post a new summary next week.

For next week, there is 1 stocks that I want to invest (if the stock achieves my start gain price).

EQTL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 36.43 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 34.36

Have a great week!

Leo.




Sunday, June 28, 2015

We earned +7.3% in just 1 week by following last week's forecast

Ibov had another lateral week and we earned +7.3%! Excellent!

I posted 2 forecasts last week (click here to read them) and both did very well. PSSA3 earned +7.3% and BBDC4 + 3.1%.

Now, we have 2 trades with PSSA3. The first one is earning +37.4% (while Ibov is +9.6% on the same period) and the second one +7.3% (while Ibov is -0.1%). Also, TRPL4 achieved +2% of profit this week.

All other stocks that I listed last week continue beating Ibov and we continue doing trades that have more than 75% of chance of achieving profit.

For next week, these are the stocks that I plan to invest (if the stock achieves my Start Gain price).
VLID3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 49.23 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 46.82
CTIP3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 33.84 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 32.44
(both stocks have more than 75% of chance of achieving +2% according to my back-tests).

Have a great week and show this blog to your friends.

Leo.



Sunday, June 21, 2015

Our investments in stocks are kicking benchmark's ass

IBOV is trying to go up, which is a good signal. 3 weeks in a roll with a small gain. Since we practically don't invest in stocks correlated to IBOV, such as PETR4 and VALE5, our gains are bigger than IBOV.

2 weeks ago I posted 3 forecasts (click here to read them). and 2 of them already achieved profit and one is still going on (TRPL4). After these trades we have 93 profitable trades (74%) ; 32 losses (25%) and 1 trade going on (1%).

EQTL3 gained +2.5% in 2 weeks and LREN3 gained +2.2%. Therefore we sold 70% of what we bought and kept 30% of the original position.

This is the summary of all 30% positions that we have. All forecasts can be found on this blog.

                         %        IBOV (%) in the same period
PSSA3         +28.0        +9.0
BRFS3           +6.4        +3.7
BRFS3           +6.8        +2.7
GETI3            +9.5        -6.0
TAEE11         +3.4        -0.5
BRFS3           +5.2        +0.5
EQTL3           +2.5        -0.1
LREN3           +1.2        +0.1

These are the stocks that call my attention for next week:
PSSA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 36.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss 34.88
BBDC4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 28.22 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss 26.89

Please, share this blog with your friends that want to earn more money with their investments.

Have a great week!

Leo.

Sunday, June 7, 2015

Stocks went down, but Effortless Investments went up!

IBOV opened at 52.7k points, increased to a maximum of 54.2k, but reduced, closing at 52.9k points. I believe it will continue lateral this week. I usually don't invest in stocks correlated to IBOV, therefore, our stocks are having a better results.

Last week 2 forecasts achieved profit!

TAEE11 (read forecast here) increased +3.4% this week. Therefore, we sold 70% of our position and kept 30%.

BRFS3 (read forecast here) increased +3.0% this week! And we sold 70% just like we did with TAEE11.

Total, we did 91 profitable trades (74%) and 32 losses (26%).

We have many "30% positions" to pay attention
                       %          IBOV (%) in same period
PSSA3      +25.7%       +7.5%
BRFS3      + 4.1%        +2.1%
BRFS3      + 4.5%        +1.2%
ALPA4      - 4.4%        - 2.3%
GETI3       + 7.4%       - 7.4%
TAEE11    + 3.4%       -1.9%
BRFS3       +2.9%        -1.0%

So far, so good! We cut losses fast and we let profit go as much as we can!

For next week, 3 stocks call my attention.
- TRPL4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 41.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 39.22
- EQTL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 34.62 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.18
- LREN3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 109.68 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 104.84

Have a great week, with a lot of profit!

Leo.


Sunday, May 31, 2015

Ibov fell -8.3% in just 2 weeks. What to do now?

IBOV had another bad week, falling -3%, accumulating a loss of -8.3% in just 2 weeks. Now, it is safe to say that Ibov is in a downward trend and may fall even more.

Last week I posted 2 stocks. TAEE11 started and now, we have to wait to achieve Stop Gain or Loss. IGTA3 started and achieved loss.

I'm thinking about not investing this week and be more conservative.

First, let's increase the Stop Loss of some of the positions that we still have 30% of what we bought
 - IGTA3 - Increase Stop Loss to 25.94. If it goes up, better! If achieves this price, we will have +6.5% of profit.
 - PSSA3 - Same idea. Increase Stop Loss to 35. 44. We will have + 26% of profit

I will invest a small amount on just 1 stock:
 - BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 64.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what we buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 62.66

Have a great week.

Leo.

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Ibovespa had a bad week. Let's be more conservative next week.

IBOV had a very bad week, opening at 57,249 and going down -5% closing at 54,377. The trend is not upward anymore and started a lateral trend.

Our both trades from last week started and achieved Stop Loss. It is ok, because we cut our losses really fast and have the money back to our account to do other trades.

For next week, I will be more conservative.

IGTA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 28.33 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 26.54
TAEE11: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 20.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 19.27

Sorry for the fast post, because I was really busy during this weekend.

Have a great week!

Leo.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Time to buy stocks in Brazil

IBOV had a normal week after so many good weeks in a roll. It closed at 57.2k points, which is practically the same closing point from last week. It continues in uptrend.

Last week I posted 2 forecasts (click here to read the forecast) and one trade didn't start (BVMF3), but the other one (GETI3) started and achived our ptofit! Therefore we sold 70% of what we bought at +2% and we kept the remaining 30%, which has +3.2% of profit now, whicle IBOV had +0.1% in the same period.

For next week, these are the stocks that I'm planning to invest (if the trade starts)
TRPL4 - Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 43.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 41.44
BBDC4 - Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 32.30 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 30.71
(Both stocks have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit, according to my back-tests)

This was a very quick post because I'm very busy here...

Have a great week!

Leo.

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Stocks to invest in Brazil

Back from vacation.

IBOV had a normal week, testing the new resistance at 58k points. IBOV started the week at 56k and moved a little bit above 58k, but at the end of the week reduced and closed at 57k points. The trend is still up, but it is not moving as fast as it was 1 month ago.

On my last post that had forecasts (click here to read it) I posted 2 stocks (ALPA4 and BEEF3). ALPA4 achieved Profit on that week and BEEF3 achieved Loss. After these trades we did 117 trades, and 88 were profitable (75.2%) and 29 losses (24.8%).

For next week, there are 2 stocks that call my attention

GETI3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 15.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 14.27
BVMF3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 13.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 12.22

Have a great week!

Leo.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Ibovespa took off + Risk-free bonds at 13.25% per year in Brazil

First, I'm sorry for my absence the past few weeks, because I'm on vacation and I really needed some time to rest from everything. This weekend is the last one.

Very quick post: IBOV finally took off. On one of my last posts I highlighted the importance of breaking the resistance at 52k points (IBOV was trying to break it since the beginning of Dec/14 and broke it in the end of March/15). I mentioned that the next resistance was at 56k and it was going to be fast. IBOV achieved 56k points in just 3 weeks and did a minor correction last week closing above 56k, which is really important.

Corruption case in PETR4 is being solved (not yet) but at least shows to investors that Brazil is trying to solve corruption. Because of that PETR4 had a huge increase (of course, after having a huge loss in the last months).

Stocks that we have 30% of what we previously bought are going very well and I will comment them on my next post.

One last thing I want to say is the opportunity I see on Brazilian Bonds. LFT is paying 13.25% / year (Yes, Brazil has one of the highest interest rates in the world to control inflation). BUT, for a foreigner, who lives in a country with practically zero inflation, this is an amazing opportunity. First: LFT is risk-free (there is no chance Brazil will default). Second: Real is depreciated versus dollar (good moment to send money to Brazil). Third: You can always hedge Real vs Dollar to be more relaxed about currency exchange.

Currently, I'm finishing my MBA and have a huge loan to pay... If I had extra cash now, I would invest in LFT and would be very happy with 13.25% per year... This rate can change, but it usually moves 0.25% up or down every 45 days. Since inflation is not controlled, I don't think it will go down very soon... But, I would be very happy with any value risk-free above 10%.

Thanks for reading the blog and have a great week!

Leo.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

+22%, +27% and benchmark +10%. Pick the right companies to invest in Brazil

IBOV had a good week gaining +2% and closing around 54k points. As I mentioned in my last post, the next resistance is at 56k.

I posted 2 forecasts last week. TRPL4 didn't start because price didn't achieve our trigger to buy it (Start Gain order).

BRFS3 started and achieved +2% of profit this week! And we sold 2 positions of BRFS3 because we had another position from 2 weeks ago. Now, we keep 30% of the position we bought.

After this forecast, this blog has 87 profitable forecasts (76%) and 28 (24%) losses.

In our portfolio, we have 30% of what we bought for these stocks

                      %              IBOV
 - IGTA3    +22.4%        +10.6%
 - PSSA3    +27.8%        +10.0%
 - BRPR3   +  4.6%        +  8.2%    (let's increase Stop Loss to 11.94)

For next week, 2 stocks call my attention.
 - ALPA4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF) achieves 10.21 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 9.71
- BEEF3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF) achieves 8.34 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 7.88
 (both stocks have 75% of chance of achieving profit based on my back-tests)

Have an excellent week!

Leo.


Sunday, April 5, 2015

+27%, +14%, +14% in 3 months. Stocks in Brazil are getting stronger.

IBOV had a great week, closing above 53k points, breaking a very important resistance at 52k points. The next resistance is at 56k. Let's wait and see if IBOV achieves that really fast or if it is going to go lateral for a while.

Our investments continue very well.

                    %        IBOV %
 IGTA3    +14.4       +8,4
 PSSA3    +27.6       +7.8
 BRPR3   +14.0       +6.0

We started a trade with BRFS3 2 weeks ago that is still going, and I'm thinking about increasing my position in that, so, for next week, I'm thinking:

BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 63.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 60.88
TRPL4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 42.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 39.44
(both trades have more than 75% of chance of achieving profit according to my back-tests)

Have an excellent week!

Leo

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Forecasts on this blog earning +21%, +15% and +11% while benchmark around +1%

IBOV had a bad week, falling almost -4%.

BUT, this doesn't mean that we lost money. Our stocks earned a lot of money! And I hope you invested in them when I posted the day that you should have bought them.

As you can see in the chart below, PSSA3 earned +21.0%, while IBOV earned +1.6% in the same period...

Also, BRPR3 earned +15.0% in 2 weeks, while IBOV is -0.1% in the same period...


IGTA3 is earning +11.2%, while IBOV is +2.2% in the same period. And MPLU3 is earning +1.4%, while IBOV is +1.3%. For MPLU3, we have to increase our Stop Loss to 33.16, because the stock had a bad movement last week.

Also, our forecast for last week initiated and we have to wait it achieves Stop (Gain or Loss).

For next week, I couldn't find a stock that had a good probability of going up with a good risk. So, we are going to watch the market next week.

Have a great week!

Leo.

Sunday, March 22, 2015

It is cheap to invest in Brazil if you have US dollars. Pick the right stocks to earn more money.

Against the probability, IBOV had a great week, gaining +4%! In my personal opinion, this was motivated by the increase in foreign investors in stocks in Brazil, because R$ achieved its most depreciated value against the US$ since 2003, and also, because volume was above the average of 2015. So, stocks in Brazil are cheap to invest if you have US$. If you pick the right ones, you can earn more than IBOV.

Last week, I said that BRPR3 had a good probability of going up (read forecast here) and that is exactly what happened! BRPR3 gained +5.1% and, in the same period, IBOV gained +3.7%. Therefore, we sold 70% of what we bought and we will continue with the remaining 30% of our position.

Below, you can read a summary about the other stocks that we still have 30% of what we bought:
                     Stock       IBOV      Comments
    RADL3   +7.2%       +4.7%     This trade was closed this week. It initiated in December/14
    MPLU3   +5.5%       +5.1%     Trade initiated in Jan/15
    IGTA3    +11.4%     +6.0%      Trade initiated in Jan/15
    PSSA3    +16.2%     +5.4%      Trade initiated in Feb/15
    BRPR3    +5.1%       +3.7%      Trade initiated in Mar/15

For next week, this is the stock that I believe that has a good expected return compared to its risk:
BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 63.78 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 60.88
(according to my back-tests this stock has 79% of chance of achieving profit if the trade starts)

Have a great week and show this blog to your friends that invest in Emerging Markets or Brazil

Leo.

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Investments: Pick the right stocks to invest in Brazil

IBOV had another bad week, goind down -3% and closing at 48.5k points, after losing practicaly -3% in the previous week. IBOV is back to a low tendency after going lateral for a couple of weeks. Threfore, we will be even more conservative in our trades.

By the way, our stocks continue very well (we selected stocks that had a good chance of going up). Here is the summary of the stocks we have (in the same period, IBOV is having negative return).
 - RADL3: +8.5% (let's increase Stop Loss to 26.19, which would result at +7.2% of profit)
 - MPLU3: +6.2%
 - IGTA3: + 7,1%
 - PSSA3: +8.0%

Last week we closed our position in CTIP3 at +3% of profit as you can read about it in the previous post.

For next week, there are some stocks that present more than 75% of chance of achieving profit, but I will post only 1, that I believe presents the best opportunity (if the trade starts).

BRPR3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 11.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 10.88
This trade has 78% of chance based on my back-tests

Have an excellent week!

Leo.


Sunday, March 8, 2015

Investments in Stocks in Brazil: Summary of the week

Last week was not good for Ibovespa, going down -3.1%, and closing below 50k points, which is an important support for the index.

Our trade from last week (RENT3) didn't start, because the price didn't achieve our trigger. CTIP3 had started 2 weeks ago and achieved Stop Loss this week.

We still have stocks in our portfolio (30% of the stocks we previously bought) that are presenting a great result compared to IBOV.

 - RADL3: +11.7%
 - CTIP3: +3.9% (let's increase Stop Loss for this position this week to 32.94, which would result in 3% of profit if stock continue going down. If it goes up, even better)
 - MPLU3: +6.9%
 - IGTA3: +7.7%
 - PSSA3: +6.9%

Also, we closed our position in BRFS3, because the 30% that we had went down. So, if you consider the 70% that we previously sold, this trade had 0% of result, which is ok, because we didn't lose any money. That is why I like to sell 70% with +2% of profit, because the remaining can go up (great), but, if it goes down, it doesn't hurt our P&L.

For next week, I don't have any good stock to invest, because scenario is not favorable to buy stocks (too risky). I prefer to wait one more week and be more conservative.

Have a great week, with a lot of profit!

Leo

Sunday, March 1, 2015

There are smallcaps stocks beating benchmark in Brazil by far

IBOV had a regular week, trying to close above 52,000 points. If it closes next week above 52k, it has a good chance of continue going up. If it closes below, it shows it didn't have enough strength and it will continue lateral.

I posted 2 forecasts last week (click here to read the forecast). Let's analyze the results of both.

CTIP3 started last week, but the stock remained lateral. Let's wait one more week to check if it achieves +2% of profit.

BRFS3 achieved 2% of profit in just 3 days, therefore, we sold 70% with this profit and we will wait a couple of weeks for the remaining 30%.

Since this blog was created, we had 84 profitable forecasts out of 111, which means that 75.7% of trades were profitable. This is great, because we are only investing in stocks that have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit.

In 2015, we are 100%! 4 out of 4. Small numbers, but IBOV started terribly, so, we are being more conservative than usual.

As you know, we have the remaining 30% of other stocks we previously bought:

 - RADL3: +16.6%
 - CTIP3: +7.4%
 - MPLU3: +5.3%
 - IGTA3: +10.1%
 - PSSA3: +9.8%


IBOV is around +2% in the same period...

And below is my forecast for next week.

RENT3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 35.03 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.31
(this trade has 76% of chance of achieving profit, according to my back-tests)

Have a great week!

Leo.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Good stocks to invest in Brazil (more than 75% chance of profit)

Due to Carnival, we had only 2.5 days to trade this week. Even though we had a short week, we identified two good stocks to invest as you can see in my previous post.

CTIP3 didn't start because it didn't achieve the Start Gain Price. But, PSSA3 started and achieved +2% of profit as you can see in the chart below! Therefore, you and I (I hope you did this trade) sold 70% of the stocks we bought and we will continue with 30%.

The other stocks we still have 30% are:
 - RADL3: +13.1%
 - CTIP3: +7.5%
 - MPLU3: +6.0%
 - IGTA3: +5.9%
 - PSSA3: +1.6%

For next week, I will invest in these stocks, if the price achieves my trigger.

CTIP3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 34.72 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.32 (chance of achieving profit based on my back-tests 75%)

BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 65.63 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 62.88 (chance of achieving profit based on my back-tests 79%)

Have a great week and show this blog to your friends.

Leo.




Sunday, February 15, 2015

After Carnival in Brazil, it is time to earn money to pay for all expenses

IBOV ended last week above 50,000 points which is a good signal. Stocks went up after some announcements of new audits in PETR4 and it seems that the market liked that.

This week, due to Carnival, stock markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday. It doesn't mean we won't try to do any trades! Brazilians and tourists in Brazil have to pay for their expenses, and I'm here to help you with that!

First, I want to talk about the stocks that remain in our portfolio (30% of stocks that we bought in the past)

RADL3: +7.2%
CTIP3: +6.7%
MPLU3: +0.9% (let's increase our Stop Loss for this stock to 32.89)
IGTA3: +3.1%

As a benchmark, IBOV is practically 0% in the same period.

This week, 2 stocks call my attention:

PSSA3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 28.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 27.22
This trade has 76% of chance of achieving profit, based on my back-tests

CTIP3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 34.77 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.37
This trade has 75% of chance of achieving profit, based on my back-tests

As a benchmark, so far, this blog achieved 75% of forecasts correct in 108 trades.

Have a great week!
Leo.

Sunday, February 8, 2015

PETR4 did a good thing and later a bad thing...


PETR4 finally did something that should have done in October or September 2014, and decided to dismiss the CEO and VPs. Then, stocks increased 8%! Good possibilities!

Then, 2 days later, PETR4 announces that the new CEO is Banco do Brasil CEO (bank controlled by the government). Stocks fell 8%... Of course! the government will continue having power in the largest company of the country...

they should have decided for someone from outside... but, decided for inside... Well, the markets already told them what they thought about this announcement.

Let's hope that corruption reduces in PETR4.

Leo.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

PETR4 (the largest company in Brazil) is pulling IBOV down...



It has been a shame... really... the largest company in Brazil is involved in a big corruption and nothing is being done... The market is giving the answer to Brazil: a loss of 64% in 5 months in market value! Petr4 is the most weighted stock in IBOV and is pulling IBOV a little bit down every week. By analyzing both graphs you can see the correlation between them.

Let's change the subject because I already discussed corruption in PETR4 in previous posts and I don't want to sound repetitive...

I continue investing in Small Caps and companies not correlated to IBOV.

Last week our trade didn't start (ITSA4) because the price never achieved our trigger.

For this week, there is one stock that calls my attention (and we already have 30% of a previous trade with us, so, we will increase our position if this trade starts)

RADL4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 26.32 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss (24.94)

The other stocks we have 30% are:
RADL4: +5.8%
CTIP3: +7.6%
MPLU3: +4.7%
IGTA3: -1.8% (let's increase our stop loss of this position to 23.84. If price goes up, great. If it goes down, we sell it and we close the whole trade with 0% profit or loss).

Have a great week.

Leo.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Always searching for the best investments in Brazil

As I was expecting, IBOV was lateral last week, alternating good and bad days, but no definition about going up or down as you can see on the first chart.
 Our last week's forecast (LAME3) didn't start because it didn't achieve the Start Gain price. Therefore, we continue with the stocks bellow in our portfolio and we are waiting for other opportunities with a good probability of going up. PS: You can read when I posted the forecasts for these stocks on previous posts.

RADL3: +6.5%
CTIP3: +9.5%
MPLU3: +5.8%
IGTA3: +5.8%

For next week, there are some stocks that call my attention but the Stop Loss price is not attractive (around 10%) and I don't like to invest on these stocks because of the risk. I know that the return can be very high, but it is personal and I don't like to lose money and there is always this chance.

The stock that I will focus my attention next week:
ITSA4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 9.82 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 8.95
Have a great week.
Leo.

Sunday, January 18, 2015

7.1% of profit in just 2 days!

IBOV had another bad week, but at least had a good Friday. It looks like IBOV has a very good support around 48k and I think this will be respected. In my opinion, IBOV will go lateral next week.
 
GOOD NEWS: one more forecast I posted on this blog achieved profit! IGTA3 (read forecast here) achieved +7.1% of profit in just 2 days after it started as you can see on the chart bellow. Therefore, we sold 70% of our position and we are keeping 30% of what we bought.

Here are the results of the remaining 30% of the stocks we previously bought:
RADL3: +9.2%
CTIP3: +6.5%
MPLU3: +6.4%
IGTA3: + 7.1%

Bellow, there is one stock that has more than 70% of achieving profit according to my back-tests.

LAME3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 12.88 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 12.22

Have a great week and show this blog to your friends that invest in stocks (in Brazil or any other country, because we are going to expand this year)

Leo.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

IBOV continues bad BUT we continue good!

IBOV continues in a low trend as you can see in the chart bellow. This has been happening for the last 4 months.
The good thing is that we are not investing in stocks correlated to IBOV. I only invest in stocks that have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit. As you can see in my last posts, we are having profit, even though most stocks are going down in Brazil.

Last week one more stock achieved its profit MPLU3 (read forecast here). It earned +4% in 4 days! After this trade we have 75% of profitable forecasts! Therefore, back testing and lots of discipline are working very well for us!

We have stocks in our portfolio (because we sold 70% of what we bought in each trade) and we kept 30%. This is the result for the remaining 30%. Even if they achieve Stop Loss, the total trade will be profitable or very close to zero, which is ok.
 - RADL3: +5.0%
 - CTIP3:   +2.6%
 - GOLL4: -2.9%

And these are the stocks that I will buy, if the price achieves my trigger (Start Gain order)

IGTA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 24.74 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 23.22

Have a great week, full of profit!

Leo.

Sunday, January 4, 2015

Stocks to invest in Brazil - Take a look at these

Hi guys, happy New Year!

If you invest in Brazil (IBOVESPA), this year had many ups and downs, as you can see on the first chart. IBOV had a great moment from Mar/14 to Sep/14, but, since then, it lost a lot, and closed the year -2.7% compared to 1 year before.
If you invested following Effortless Investments blog in 2014, you didn’t lose money. By the way, you earned money. Why? Because I do fast trades (I recommend that you sell 70% of what you buy at +2% or +3%, and let the remaining 30% to continue). This way, even if you achieve Stop Loss (another thing that we do in all trades), you won’t lose money.

Another important issue, is that I’m constantly back-testing new methodologies and I only invest my money in methodologies that have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit. Therefore, I'm spending my time trying to test everything I know to find stocks that I believe that will go up with more than 70% of chances!

Trust me, it is working. In total, this blog started 108 trades (you can see all forecasts and results in previous posts) and had profit in 75% of trades (80 trades) and achieved Stop Loss in 25% (27 trades).

The maximum we earned with the remaining 30% was KROT3, when we sold the stock with +30% of profit. Other stocks, we sold at +20%, +15% and many between +2% and +10%.

So, for this year, my goal is to make this even better!

Ok, now, let’s talk about the results from last week. 3 stocks achieved their targets and we sold 70% of what we bought: RADL3 (read forecast here), and CTIP3 and GOLL4 (read forecast here). Now, let’s wait to see what happens with the 30% we have.

For next week, in my opinion, this is the stock that has a good probability of achieving profit.
MPLU3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 33.20 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 31.54

I hope you have fun reading this blog and earn a LOT of money in 2015!


Leo.