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Sunday, February 22, 2015

Good stocks to invest in Brazil (more than 75% chance of profit)

Due to Carnival, we had only 2.5 days to trade this week. Even though we had a short week, we identified two good stocks to invest as you can see in my previous post.

CTIP3 didn't start because it didn't achieve the Start Gain Price. But, PSSA3 started and achieved +2% of profit as you can see in the chart below! Therefore, you and I (I hope you did this trade) sold 70% of the stocks we bought and we will continue with 30%.

The other stocks we still have 30% are:
 - RADL3: +13.1%
 - CTIP3: +7.5%
 - MPLU3: +6.0%
 - IGTA3: +5.9%
 - PSSA3: +1.6%

For next week, I will invest in these stocks, if the price achieves my trigger.

CTIP3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 34.72 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.32 (chance of achieving profit based on my back-tests 75%)

BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 65.63 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 62.88 (chance of achieving profit based on my back-tests 79%)

Have a great week and show this blog to your friends.

Leo.




Sunday, February 15, 2015

After Carnival in Brazil, it is time to earn money to pay for all expenses

IBOV ended last week above 50,000 points which is a good signal. Stocks went up after some announcements of new audits in PETR4 and it seems that the market liked that.

This week, due to Carnival, stock markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday. It doesn't mean we won't try to do any trades! Brazilians and tourists in Brazil have to pay for their expenses, and I'm here to help you with that!

First, I want to talk about the stocks that remain in our portfolio (30% of stocks that we bought in the past)

RADL3: +7.2%
CTIP3: +6.7%
MPLU3: +0.9% (let's increase our Stop Loss for this stock to 32.89)
IGTA3: +3.1%

As a benchmark, IBOV is practically 0% in the same period.

This week, 2 stocks call my attention:

PSSA3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 28.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 27.22
This trade has 76% of chance of achieving profit, based on my back-tests

CTIP3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 34.77 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.37
This trade has 75% of chance of achieving profit, based on my back-tests

As a benchmark, so far, this blog achieved 75% of forecasts correct in 108 trades.

Have a great week!
Leo.

Sunday, February 8, 2015

PETR4 did a good thing and later a bad thing...


PETR4 finally did something that should have done in October or September 2014, and decided to dismiss the CEO and VPs. Then, stocks increased 8%! Good possibilities!

Then, 2 days later, PETR4 announces that the new CEO is Banco do Brasil CEO (bank controlled by the government). Stocks fell 8%... Of course! the government will continue having power in the largest company of the country...

they should have decided for someone from outside... but, decided for inside... Well, the markets already told them what they thought about this announcement.

Let's hope that corruption reduces in PETR4.

Leo.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

PETR4 (the largest company in Brazil) is pulling IBOV down...



It has been a shame... really... the largest company in Brazil is involved in a big corruption and nothing is being done... The market is giving the answer to Brazil: a loss of 64% in 5 months in market value! Petr4 is the most weighted stock in IBOV and is pulling IBOV a little bit down every week. By analyzing both graphs you can see the correlation between them.

Let's change the subject because I already discussed corruption in PETR4 in previous posts and I don't want to sound repetitive...

I continue investing in Small Caps and companies not correlated to IBOV.

Last week our trade didn't start (ITSA4) because the price never achieved our trigger.

For this week, there is one stock that calls my attention (and we already have 30% of a previous trade with us, so, we will increase our position if this trade starts)

RADL4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 26.32 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss (24.94)

The other stocks we have 30% are:
RADL4: +5.8%
CTIP3: +7.6%
MPLU3: +4.7%
IGTA3: -1.8% (let's increase our stop loss of this position to 23.84. If price goes up, great. If it goes down, we sell it and we close the whole trade with 0% profit or loss).

Have a great week.

Leo.