Ibov fell -8.3% in just 2 weeks. What to do now?

IBOV had another bad week, falling -3%, accumulating a loss of -8.3% in just 2 weeks. Now, it is safe to say that Ibov is in a downward trend and may fall even more.

Last week I posted 2 stocks. TAEE11 started and now, we have to wait to achieve Stop Gain or Loss. IGTA3 started and achieved loss.

I'm thinking about not investing this week and be more conservative.

First, let's increase the Stop Loss of some of the positions that we still have 30% of what we bought
 - IGTA3 - Increase Stop Loss to 25.94. If it goes up, better! If achieves this price, we will have +6.5% of profit.
 - PSSA3 - Same idea. Increase Stop Loss to 35. 44. We will have + 26% of profit

I will invest a small amount on just 1 stock:
 - BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 64.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what we buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 62.66

Have a great week.

Leo.

Ibovespa had a bad week. Let's be more conservative next week.

IBOV had a very bad week, opening at 57,249 and going down -5% closing at 54,377. The trend is not upward anymore and started a lateral trend.

Our both trades from last week started and achieved Stop Loss. It is ok, because we cut our losses really fast and have the money back to our account to do other trades.

For next week, I will be more conservative.

IGTA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 28.33 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 26.54
TAEE11: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 20.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 19.27

Sorry for the fast post, because I was really busy during this weekend.

Have a great week!

Leo.

Time to buy stocks in Brazil

IBOV had a normal week after so many good weeks in a roll. It closed at 57.2k points, which is practically the same closing point from last week. It continues in uptrend.

Last week I posted 2 forecasts (click here to read the forecast) and one trade didn't start (BVMF3), but the other one (GETI3) started and achived our ptofit! Therefore we sold 70% of what we bought at +2% and we kept the remaining 30%, which has +3.2% of profit now, whicle IBOV had +0.1% in the same period.

For next week, these are the stocks that I'm planning to invest (if the trade starts)
TRPL4 - Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 43.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 41.44
BBDC4 - Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 32.30 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 30.71
(Both stocks have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit, according to my back-tests)

This was a very quick post because I'm very busy here...

Have a great week!

Leo.

Stocks to invest in Brazil

Back from vacation.

IBOV had a normal week, testing the new resistance at 58k points. IBOV started the week at 56k and moved a little bit above 58k, but at the end of the week reduced and closed at 57k points. The trend is still up, but it is not moving as fast as it was 1 month ago.

On my last post that had forecasts (click here to read it) I posted 2 stocks (ALPA4 and BEEF3). ALPA4 achieved Profit on that week and BEEF3 achieved Loss. After these trades we did 117 trades, and 88 were profitable (75.2%) and 29 losses (24.8%).

For next week, there are 2 stocks that call my attention

GETI3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 15.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 14.27
BVMF3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 13.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 12.22

Have a great week!

Leo.

Ibovespa took off + Risk-free bonds at 13.25% per year in Brazil

First, I'm sorry for my absence the past few weeks, because I'm on vacation and I really needed some time to rest from everything. This weekend is the last one.

Very quick post: IBOV finally took off. On one of my last posts I highlighted the importance of breaking the resistance at 52k points (IBOV was trying to break it since the beginning of Dec/14 and broke it in the end of March/15). I mentioned that the next resistance was at 56k and it was going to be fast. IBOV achieved 56k points in just 3 weeks and did a minor correction last week closing above 56k, which is really important.

Corruption case in PETR4 is being solved (not yet) but at least shows to investors that Brazil is trying to solve corruption. Because of that PETR4 had a huge increase (of course, after having a huge loss in the last months).

Stocks that we have 30% of what we previously bought are going very well and I will comment them on my next post.

One last thing I want to say is the opportunity I see on Brazilian Bonds. LFT is paying 13.25% / year (Yes, Brazil has one of the highest interest rates in the world to control inflation). BUT, for a foreigner, who lives in a country with practically zero inflation, this is an amazing opportunity. First: LFT is risk-free (there is no chance Brazil will default). Second: Real is depreciated versus dollar (good moment to send money to Brazil). Third: You can always hedge Real vs Dollar to be more relaxed about currency exchange.

Currently, I'm finishing my MBA and have a huge loan to pay... If I had extra cash now, I would invest in LFT and would be very happy with 13.25% per year... This rate can change, but it usually moves 0.25% up or down every 45 days. Since inflation is not controlled, I don't think it will go down very soon... But, I would be very happy with any value risk-free above 10%.

Thanks for reading the blog and have a great week!

Leo.