1 week to Brazilian elections and the effects on Stock Markets

As I mentioned on my last post I was expecting a lateral movement in Brazilian stocks due to the first round of elections for president in Brazil and that happened. Investors continue waiting to see what is going to happen, because the level of confidence in Brazilian economy will vary depending of the actions and plans of the next president. As you can see on the graph, IBOV had a very small reduction and stopped at 56,000 points for 4 days and went up on Friday.

Next week I posted about LAME4, but the trad didn't start because the price didn't achieve our Start Gain price.

FIBR3 and ITUB4 continue performing very well, achieving +16.2% and 12.7% of profit since the day we bought and we continue holding them.

SMTO3 and ABRE11 gave some bad signals last week and I prefer to increase the Stop Loss for both. SMTO3 increase to 40.63 and ABRE11 increase to 37.78. We would still have profit with both and let's see if they increase their prices next week.

After doing lots of analyses, for this week, I believe this is the best opportunity.

GETI3 - Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 15.92 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 15.08

Have a great week.

Leo.

I'm here to help you to invest in Brazil

As I expected IBOV was lateral last week. Elections for president in Brazil will be in 2 weeks and I believe big investors are waiting for this defitinion and invest more. But, in Brazil, there are 2 rounds. Therefore, the 2 best candidates will go to the second round in November.

Because we there is always the probability that the market may go dow, we increased many of our Stops and we sold some stocks last week.

Here is the summary:

KROT3: Sold with +28% of profit
IGTA3: Sold with +12% of profit
BRML3: Sold with +3.5% of profit
PCAR4: Sold with +3% of profit

We still continue with (check previous posts to read the forecast about these stocks):
ITUB4: +13%
ABRE11: +11%
FIBR3: +16% (even with IBOV going down, it increased 3 weeks in a row)
ODPV3: +2.4%
SMTO3: +8%

Can we buy again some of the stocks that we sold? YES. I will just wait next week to check if the prices are good to buy again. As usual, we will always use "Start Gain" order, to make sure the movement has more probability of going up.

This week there is one stock that may be a good investment if the trade starts.
LAME4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 15.11 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 14.17

Have a great week!

Leo.

Next week defines if we return to Up, Lateral or Down

IBOV seems to have achieved its target for price reduction (lower red line), but this time it was much faster than the other times. In my opinion, this is not good because it shows a little bit of fear about the future. Investors prefered to sell the stocks instead of keeping it. At the end of this week, IBOV continues in high tendency, but, I believe it will stay lateral the next weeks.

Due to that uncertainty, I prefer to increase the Stop of most of our stocks, so, if the price achieves our Stop, we sell the stock and wait for a more conservative scenario (remember, I don't want to lose my money and I don't want to see you losing yours). Because we are not sure if IBOV can go really down, I prefer to be conservative.

KROT3 - happened a slit 4:1 - Increase Stop Loss to 14.69 (if we sell, we will have 30% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

IGTA3 - Increase Stop Loss to 24.89 (if we sell, we will have 12% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

ITUB4 - Increase Stop Loss to 36.68 (if we sell, we will have 10% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

BRML3 - Increase Stop Loss to 20.17 (if we sell, we will have 4% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

ABRE11 - Increase Stop Loss to 37.44 (if we sell, we will have 4.5% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

PCAR4 - Increase Stop Loss to 109.22 (if we sell, we will have 3.5% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

FIBR3 is going completely against IBOV and increased +13% in 2 weeks!

Let's wait one more week to buy stocks.

Have a great week.

Leo.

Ibovespa - Just waiting for the right moment to buy again

Ibovespa had a normal reduction this week after practically 3 weeks going up. This is normal and it may continue next week (as it happened in the previous months).

The stocks that you and I have continue in high tendency (as Ibovespa) and we are not thinking about selling them.

For this week, I continue with the same idea of last week: I couldn't find stocks with more than 70% of chance of achieving profit that have a small Stop Loss. I don't like to invest in stocks that have a huge Stop Loss, because there is always a probability of achieving loss and I (and I'm sure you) don't like losing a lot of money in just 1 trade.

Let's wait for next week, because I think prices may reduce a little bit more and we will have better opportunities (smaller Stop Losses).

Have a great week!

Leo.

Ibovespa subindo subindo subindo

Desde o meu último post 2 semanas atrás, o Ibovespa subiu quase 9%, o que é incrível. Devido a isso, muitos dos nossos investimentos estao ainda mais rentaveis do que antes, porque estamos escolhendo muito boas ações para investir.

No meu último post (clique aqui para ler o post), propus 4 investimentos e 3 iniciaram e ja atingiram o nosso alvo. PSSA3 e ODPV3 ganhou +2% e SMTO3 ganhou +13,4%! Então, vendemos 70% do que nós compramos e agora vamos continuar com 30% para vender a um preço mais elevado. Após estes resultados, embora o IBOV tenha tido muitos altos e baixos em 1 ano e meio, fizemos 75 trades lucrativos ​​(74%) e 26 perdas (26%).

Abaixo segue o resumo das ações que temos 30% do que nós compramos (ver posts anteriores para ler a previsão).

KROT3: + 45% (comprado 4 meses atrás)
IGTA3: + 23% (comprado 3 meses atrás)
KROT3: + 21% (comprado 3 meses atrás)
ITUB4: + 21% (comprado 2,5 meses atrás)
BRML3: + 20% (comprado 2,5 meses atrás)
ABRE11: + 9% (comprado 2 meses atrás)
PCAR4: + 7% (comprado 1,5 meses atrás)
ITUB4: + 21% (comprado 1,5 meses atrás)
ABRE11: + 7% (comprado 1 mês atrás)
KROT3: + 6% (comprado há 20 dias atrás)
FIBR3: + 2% (comprado há 20 dias atrás)
PSSA3: + 2% (comprado há 2 semanas)
ODPV3: + 2% (comprado há 2 semanas)
SMTO3: + 13% (comprado há 2 semanas)

Analisei algumas ações para esta semana e não consegui encontrar um bom investimento. Ou porque a probabilidade de alcançar o lucro não está acima de 70% ou porque o Stop Loss era alto e nós não poderiamos investir muito por causa do risco.

Então, vamos ver o que acontece no mercado na próxima semana e esperar por um aumento no preço das ações que já temos.

Tenham uma ótima semana e por favor compartilhem este blog com seus amigos no Facebook, Twitter, etc, para ele continuar expandindo!

Muito obrigado.

Leo.

Ibovespa going UP UP UP

Since my last post 2 weeks ago Ibovespa increased almost 9% which is amazing. Due to that, lots of our investments are even more profitable than before, because we are choosing very good stocks to invest.

On my last post (click here to read the post) I proposed 4 investments and 3 started and achieved our target. PSSA3 and ODPV3 earned +2% and SMTO3 earned +13.4%! So, we sold 70% of what we bought and now we will continue with 30% to sell at a higher price. After these results, even though IBOV had many ups and downs in 1.5 years, we did 75 profitable trades (74%) and 26 losses (26%).

Bellow is the summary of the stocks that we have 30% of what we bought (see previous posts to read the forecast).

KROT3: +45% (bought 4 months ago)
IGTA3: +23% (bought 3 months ago)
KROT3: +21% (bought 3 months ago)
ITUB4: +21% (bought 2.5 months ago)
BRML3: +20% (bought 2.5 months ago)
ABRE11: +9% (bought 2 months ago)
PCAR4: +7% (bought 1.5 month ago)
ITUB4: +21% (bought 1.5 month ago)
ABRE11: +7% (bought 1 month ago)
KROT3: +6% (bought 20 days ago)
FIBR3: +2% (bought 20 days ago)
PSSA3: +2% (bought 2 weeks ago)
ODPV3: +2% (bought 2 weeks ago)
SMTO3: +13% (bought 2 weeks ago)

I analyzed some stocks for this week and I couldn't find some good investment for this week. Either because the probability of achieving profit is not above 70% or because the Stop Loss was to high and we wouldn't invest a lot because of the risk.

So, let's see what happens in the market next week and wait for an increase in the price of the stocks we already have.

Have a great week and share this blog with your friends on Facebook, Twitter, etc, so it continues to expand!

Thank you very much.

Leo.

Acoes do Ibovespa continuam extremamente atrativas

Ibovespa teve uma semana volátil e continua dentro do grande canal de tendência de alta que começou em abril, como você pode ver no gráfico 1.

Devido a esta volatilidade, nesta semana duas acoes atingiram lucro (KROT3 e FIBR3), mas duas deram perda (GGBR4 e CSNA3). Após estes resultados (quase 1 ano e 4 meses) temos 72 previsões lucrativas (73%) e 26 perdas (27%). Isso prova que a idéia de só investir em ações que têm mais de 70% de chance de alcançar o lucro está funcionando. Vou continuar da mesma maneira e vou tentar encontrar formas de tornar isso ainda melhor.

KROT3 é realmente impressionante, e já cresceu 40% desde a primeira vez que comprei, cerca de 3 meses atrás. Desde a primeira compra, já compramos mais 2 vezes, cada vez que ela reduz um pouco o seu preço.

Na semana passada, nós aumentamos nosso Stop para ESTC3 e vendemos com +16% de lucro depois de 3 meses.

Aqui estão as ações que chamam a minha atenção para a próxima semana:

ABRE11: Compra Start (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 38,47; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você compra) + 2%; Stop de Perda 35,74

PSSA3: Compra Start (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 32,71; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você compra) + 2%; Stop de Perda 30,94

ODPV3: Compra Start (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 9,53; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você compra) + 2%; Stop de Perda 9,07

SMTO3: Compra Start (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 40,02; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você compra) + 2%; Stop de Perda 36,72

Tenham uma ótima semana!

Leo.