Against the probability, IBOV had a great week, gaining +4%! In my personal opinion, this was motivated by the increase in foreign investors in stocks in Brazil, because R$ achieved its most depreciated value against the US$ since 2003, and also, because volume was above the average of 2015. So, stocks in Brazil are cheap to invest if you have US$. If you pick the right ones, you can earn more than IBOV.
Last week, I said that BRPR3 had a good probability of going up (read forecast here) and that is exactly what happened! BRPR3 gained +5.1% and, in the same period, IBOV gained +3.7%. Therefore, we sold 70% of what we bought and we will continue with the remaining 30% of our position.
Below, you can read a summary about the other stocks that we still have 30% of what we bought:
Stock IBOV Comments
RADL3 +7.2% +4.7% This trade was closed this week. It initiated in December/14
MPLU3 +5.5% +5.1% Trade initiated in Jan/15
IGTA3 +11.4% +6.0% Trade initiated in Jan/15
PSSA3 +16.2% +5.4% Trade initiated in Feb/15
BRPR3 +5.1% +3.7% Trade initiated in Mar/15
For next week, this is the stock that I believe that has a good expected return compared to its risk:
BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 63.78 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 60.88
(according to my back-tests this stock has 79% of chance of achieving profit if the trade starts)
Have a great week and show this blog to your friends that invest in Emerging Markets or Brazil
Leo.
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