After Carnival in Brazil, it is time to earn money to pay for all expenses

IBOV ended last week above 50,000 points which is a good signal. Stocks went up after some announcements of new audits in PETR4 and it seems that the market liked that.

This week, due to Carnival, stock markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday. It doesn't mean we won't try to do any trades! Brazilians and tourists in Brazil have to pay for their expenses, and I'm here to help you with that!

First, I want to talk about the stocks that remain in our portfolio (30% of stocks that we bought in the past)

RADL3: +7.2%
CTIP3: +6.7%
MPLU3: +0.9% (let's increase our Stop Loss for this stock to 32.89)
IGTA3: +3.1%

As a benchmark, IBOV is practically 0% in the same period.

This week, 2 stocks call my attention:

PSSA3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 28.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 27.22
This trade has 76% of chance of achieving profit, based on my back-tests

CTIP3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 34.77 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.37
This trade has 75% of chance of achieving profit, based on my back-tests

As a benchmark, so far, this blog achieved 75% of forecasts correct in 108 trades.

Have a great week!
Leo.

PETR4 did a good thing and later a bad thing...

PETR4 finally did something that should have done in October or September 2014, and decided to dismiss the CEO and VPs. Then, stocks increased 8%! Good possibilities!

Then, 2 days later, PETR4 announces that the new CEO is Banco do Brasil CEO (bank controlled by the government). Stocks fell 8%... Of course! the government will continue having power in the largest company of the country...

they should have decided for someone from outside... but, decided for inside... Well, the markets already told them what they thought about this announcement.

Let's hope that corruption reduces in PETR4.

Leo.

PETR4 (the largest company in Brazil) is pulling IBOV down...

It has been a shame... really... the largest company in Brazil is involved in a big corruption and nothing is being done... The market is giving the answer to Brazil: a loss of 64% in 5 months in market value! Petr4 is the most weighted stock in IBOV and is pulling IBOV a little bit down every week. By analyzing both graphs you can see the correlation between them.

Let's change the subject because I already discussed corruption in PETR4 in previous posts and I don't want to sound repetitive...

I continue investing in Small Caps and companies not correlated to IBOV.

Last week our trade didn't start (ITSA4) because the price never achieved our trigger.

For this week, there is one stock that calls my attention (and we already have 30% of a previous trade with us, so, we will increase our position if this trade starts)

RADL4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 26.32 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss (24.94)

The other stocks we have 30% are:
RADL4: +5.8%
CTIP3: +7.6%
MPLU3: +4.7%
IGTA3: -1.8% (let's increase our stop loss of this position to 23.84. If price goes up, great. If it goes down, we sell it and we close the whole trade with 0% profit or loss).

Have a great week.

Leo.

Always searching for the best investments in Brazil

As I was expecting, IBOV was lateral last week, alternating good and bad days, but no definition about going up or down as you can see on the first chart.

 Our last week's forecast (LAME3) didn't start because it didn't achieve the Start Gain price. Therefore, we continue with the stocks bellow in our portfolio and we are waiting for other opportunities with a good probability of going up. PS: You can read when I posted the forecasts for these stocks on previous posts.

RADL3: +6.5%
CTIP3: +9.5%
MPLU3: +5.8%
IGTA3: +5.8%

For next week, there are some stocks that call my attention but the Stop Loss price is not attractive (around 10%) and I don't like to invest on these stocks because of the risk. I know that the return can be very high, but it is personal and I don't like to lose money and there is always this chance.

The stock that I will focus my attention next week:
ITSA4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 9.82 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 8.95

Have a great week.
Leo.

7.1% of profit in just 2 days!

IBOV had another bad week, but at least had a good Friday. It looks like IBOV has a very good support around 48k and I think this will be respected. In my opinion, IBOV will go lateral next week.

 

GOOD NEWS: one more forecast I posted on this blog achieved profit! IGTA3 (read forecast here) achieved +7.1% of profit in just 2 days after it started as you can see on the chart bellow. Therefore, we sold 70% of our position and we are keeping 30% of what we bought.

Here are the results of the remaining 30% of the stocks we previously bought:
RADL3: +9.2%
CTIP3: +6.5%
MPLU3: +6.4%
IGTA3: + 7.1%

Bellow, there is one stock that has more than 70% of achieving profit according to my back-tests.

LAME3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 12.88 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 12.22

Have a great week and show this blog to your friends that invest in stocks (in Brazil or any other country, because we are going to expand this year)

Leo.

IBOV continues bad BUT we continue good!

IBOV continues in a low trend as you can see in the chart bellow. This has been happening for the last 4 months.

The good thing is that we are not investing in stocks correlated to IBOV. I only invest in stocks that have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit. As you can see in my last posts, we are having profit, even though most stocks are going down in Brazil.

Last week one more stock achieved its profit MPLU3 (read forecast here). It earned +4% in 4 days! After this trade we have 75% of profitable forecasts! Therefore, back testing and lots of discipline are working very well for us!

We have stocks in our portfolio (because we sold 70% of what we bought in each trade) and we kept 30%. This is the result for the remaining 30%. Even if they achieve Stop Loss, the total trade will be profitable or very close to zero, which is ok.
 - RADL3: +5.0%
 - CTIP3:   +2.6%
 - GOLL4: -2.9%

And these are the stocks that I will buy, if the price achieves my trigger (Start Gain order)

IGTA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 24.74 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 23.22

Have a great week, full of profit!

Leo.

Stocks to invest in Brazil - Take a look at these

Hi guys, happy New Year!

If you invest in Brazil (IBOVESPA), this year had many ups and downs, as you can see on the first chart. IBOV had a great moment from Mar/14 to Sep/14, but, since then, it lost a lot, and closed the year -2.7% compared to 1 year before.

If you invested following Effortless Investments blog in 2014, you didn’t lose money. By the way, you earned money. Why? Because I do fast trades (I recommend that you sell 70% of what you buy at +2% or +3%, and let the remaining 30% to continue). This way, even if you achieve Stop Loss (another thing that we do in all trades), you won’t lose money.

Another important issue, is that I’m constantly back-testing new methodologies and I only invest my money in methodologies that have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit. Therefore, I'm spending my time trying to test everything I know to find stocks that I believe that will go up with more than 70% of chances!

Trust me, it is working. In total, this blog started 108 trades (you can see all forecasts and results in previous posts) and had profit in 75% of trades (80 trades) and achieved Stop Loss in 25% (27 trades).

The maximum we earned with the remaining 30% was KROT3, when we sold the stock with +30% of profit. Other stocks, we sold at +20%, +15% and many between +2% and +10%.

So, for this year, my goal is to make this even better!

Ok, now, let’s talk about the results from last week. 3 stocks achieved their targets and we sold 70% of what we bought: RADL3 (read forecast here), and CTIP3 and GOLL4 (read forecast here). Now, let’s wait to see what happens with the 30% we have.

For next week, in my opinion, this is the stock that has a good probability of achieving profit.

MPLU3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 33.20 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 31.54

I hope you have fun reading this blog and earn a LOT of money in 2015!

Leo.