Update:Articles in the US about corruption in Brazil

I'm posting some articles in the US talking about this subject:

'Biggest Corruption Case In The History Of Brazil' Continues With More Arrests, Warrants Issued

http://www.ibtimes.com/biggest-corruption-case-history-brazil-continues-more-arrests-warrants-issued-1724340

Brazilian police arrest 18 in Petrobras corruption raids

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30055817


Can Brazil solve this? I really hope so!

Leo.

Come on Brazil, let's fight against corruption!

As you can see on the first chart, IBOV continues inside the low tendency channel that started in September. The probability shows it will continue going down unless something really strong happens and "break" the channel. The problem in Brazil right now is the big corruption in the largest company in Brazil (Petrobras - PETR4) which may involve politicians. Of course this is not the kind of news that attract international investors... So, many of them are selling their positions and they will probably wait for a definition. If the government acts fast and get the money back (some news says around US$ 90M), re-invest, and arrest evereybody, this could show a new credibility in Brazil that international investors will like.

As an optimistic about Brazil, I hope the police and governmwnt solve this as fast as possible, so, Brazil can focus in other important issues.

Regarding investments, I continue with the same suggestion from last week (KROT3) because it has a low correlation with IBOV or PETR4 and KROT3 has a good probability of going up if the trade starts.

The other stock that calls my attention is VLID3.

VLID3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 39.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 100% if achieves) +2% ; Stop Loss 37.58

Have a great week!

Leo.

Is it time to buy stocks in Brazil?

My speech continues the same (unfortunately)... IBOV with small ups and downs, long term direction is lateral (some people may say it is down) as you can see in the first chart.

This week one stock calls my attention and I will take the risk, even though IBOV is telling me to wait a little bit more. This stock is not very correlated to IBOV which may help us.

We already earned around 40% with KROT3 this year, and this week may be a good week to buy this stock (of course, only if achieves Start Gain trigger).

KROT3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 18.09 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 16.84

Have a great week!

Leo.

IBOV after presidential elections

As I expected IBOV opened on Monday with a big gap, went down almost -7%, and closed at -3%.

On Thursday and Friday IBOV had a big recovery due to an euphoria in Japanese and US markets, which are breaking their own records, and resulted in more people buying stocks in all markets, including Brazil.

IBOV is still far away from its record (in 2008, before the crisis, achieved 74,000 points) and currently it is around 55,000. While many countries already passed their records, Brazil still has a long way to achieve 74,000 again.

I analyzed many stocks this week and there are good opportunities with more than 70% of chance of achieving profit. There is only one BIG problem: The size of the Stop Loss.

I choose my investments based on the probability of achieving profit and based on the maximum loss that I can have (Stop Loss). Due to the big volatility that has happened in IBOV in the last weeks, all stocks I would invest have a Stop Loss higher than 10%.

Since there is always a probability of loss (around 30%) in these methodologies and the Stop Loss is 10%, the amount of money that we can invest is low and the risk is high.

I prefer to wait 1 more week and do more conservative trades. Remember, your goal is not to get rich in 1 month or 1 trade (this doesn't happen). Your goal is to get more and more money every trade with discipline and get rich in long-term. I've seen many people that say that earned 10% in one day, but believe me, this people take many more risks than us, and believe me, they will not tell you when they lose 10% in one day...

To conclude, let's wait one more week and let's earn money without having too many risks.

Have a great week.

Leo.