Is it the best moment buy stocks?

Ibov had an excellent Friday earning +3% after having 4 bad days before that. As you can see on the chart, 44k points is an important support and one more time Ibov stopped at that level. Also, you can notice that we continue in a downward trend, but this can come to an end if Ibov closes next week above 46k points.

The moment in Brazil continues practically the same, with the exception that the President is trying new things to overcome the crisis, and I believe that is why Ibov earned +3% on Friday. But, investors will only buy heavily (and prices will go up when this happen) if they see continuity on the process.

I will invest in one stock this week (if it achieves my trigger if course).

EQTL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 34.93 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 32.93

Have a great week!

Leo.

What to do when the market goes down?

Ibov is presenting a lot of volatility in the previous weeks. Last week was bad and IBOV is really close to a very important support at 44k points as you can see in the chart.

The worst part is how far Ibov is from the Moving Average of 200 periods (green line).

Brazil continues with the same problem (corruption) and that is why investors are not buying... There are good stocks, but there is a big risk in Brazil as a country and until we solve this, the best thing to do is wait and just watch the market.

It is been a month that I'm out and I'm happy because the market is going down...

Let's see what happens in the next week.

See you.

Leo.

Have we achieved the lowest level of the year?

IBOV had a lateral week, falling a little bit, which is normal after achieving an important support the week before. I continue with my opinion that we probably achieved the lowest point of the week and I'm waiting for good opportunities to buy stocks.

Last week I tried and I didn't get a good result... PSSA3 didn't start (ok), but EQTL3 started and achieved Stop Loss during the week.

Next week I will be more conservative and I will be outside the market.

Have an excellent week.

Leo.

Is it time to buy stocks?

In my opinion, we achieved the lowest point of the year in Brazil. IBOV achieved 42.7k points, and, after that, went up to close at 47.1k points.

I don't have any stock in my portfolio right now (we sold all stocks as I described in my previous posts) and I think this is a good time to buy.

I will be conservative and buy less than the usual and I will invest in stocks that I think they are solid (we were investing in these stocks before, but we sold because they were presenting a bad momentum as all stocks in the market).

PSSA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 33.72 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 31.94
EQTL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 35.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.88

Have a great week!

Leo.

Market fell -10% and I haven't sold. What to do now?

As expected IBOV continues going down. This is the third week in a row, but, the downward trend started 5 weeks ago and that is why we closed practically all our trades, when we could have some profit. If we had kept them we would be losing money now and nobody likes losing money on bad investments. IBOV opened at 47.5k and closed at 45.7k points, losing -3.7% in one week. This is the lowest point since March/2014.

Our stocks:
BRFS3. Let's increase Stop Loss to 67.22. If stock goes down, we still have around 6% of profit. If it goes up, we keep it. In the same period IBOV lost -12%.
GETI3. Let's increase Stop Loss to 16.14. If it goes down, we stil have 8% of profit. IBOV lost -20% on the same period of this trade.
VLID3 and GETI3, sold during the week as I explained on last post.

What to do if you have stocks and you haven't sold yet?

Well, I always prefer to use Stop Loss and sell fast. My Stop Loss already tell me the maximum I can lose in one investment. The problem is that many people don't use Stop Loss and don't limit their losses. Then, they say that they are investing for the long term and will keep the stock... (I did this in the past). In my case (and I think this may be happening to you in this situation) is that the pain gets higher and higher every week and you regret you haven't sold yet. My suggestion: sell and relax. I prefer that you have the money back on our account and stop losing (because it may go down even more). If you decide to keep it, you become a person "cheering" for the stock. There is nothing saying that it will go up, but you prefer to think that it will... I prefer that you sell and wait for the correct time to buy the stock again.

I will stay one more week just watching the market.

Have a great week.

Leo.

Stocks are going down. What to do now?

As I was expecting, Ibov continued the downward movement. It opened at 48.6k points and closed at the minimum at 47.5k losing -2.2%.

We made the right decision selling PSSA3 last week, because it fell even more this week and we sold then at the right moment. EQTL3 increased a little bit and may bee a good investment for us if it confirms its momentum.

BRFS3 and GEIT3 continue in upward trend and we will continue with them in our portfolio. But, VLID3 and CTIP3 are going lateral trend. I prefer to increase Stop Loss of VLID3 to 47.08 and CTIP3 to 33.44. IF they go up next week, awesome. If they go down, we still have some profit.

I will continue with my money on fixed income this week, waiting for better definition in the stock market.

Have a great week.

Leo.

80% of profitable trades while benchmark going down

IBOV had a terrible week, opening at 50.8k points and closing at 48.5k points losing -4.5% in just 5 days... Downward trend and things can get worse...

I'm increasing the amount I invest in brazilian treasury bonds (such as LFT) because it is paying 14.25% per year risk-free. How is this possible? Inflation... For brazilians, this is terrible because central bank is increasing the interest rate to try to control the inflation. BUT, if you are a foreigner investor, this makes a lot of sense. So, I imagine that the big funds are getting the money out of the stock market and buying treasury bonds.

This is what I'm going to do this week!

We have an excellent track record because we only invest in stocks that we believe they will go up. In 2 years, we got more than 75% of profitable trades. In 2015 we got more than 80% of profitable trades and IBOV is down in the same period.

This week, we sold our 3 positions in PSSA3. The first one with aprox. 30% of profit, which is amazing! Why not holding more time? Because I think there is too much risk... Also, we sold our positions in EQTL3 for the same reason. We will buy these stocks again when we see a great opportunity.

These are the stocks that we still have in our portfolio
                        %                IBOV (in the same period)
BRFS3         +10.9              -6.3
BRFS3         +11.4              -7.2
GETI3          +13.8             -15.1
BRFS3          +9.7               -9.2
VLID3          +0.5               -10.0
CTIP3           +3.4               -9.9

Have an excellent week!

Leo.

Best stocks to invest in Brazil

IBOV partially recovered from the big loss that happened the previous week. Last week it opened at 49.2k points and closed at 50.8k, earning +3.3%. I'm still cautious about Ibov.

Last week I posted about the stocks that we have in our portfolio. we sold 2 of the stocks because they achieved our new stop loss (TAEE11 and LREN3). All other stocks recovered and BRFS3 earned almost +10% in just one week.

Next week I will post another table that compares our stocks to IBOV.

For next week, there is only one stock that I'm planning to invest (if the price achieves my trigger)

PSSA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 38.95 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 36.87

Have a great week and I hope you earn a lot of money this week!

Leo.

IBOV missed important support. What to do now?

After 8 weeks IBOV missed the support at 52k points, falling down -5.9% to 49.2k points. This is a bad signal because Ibov is in a downward trend after this week.

In my personal opinion, this is happening because there is an expectation that Brazilian Central Bank will continue increasing Interest rate to control inflation. This attracts more investments to fixed income instead of stocks.

This week, I'm not planning to invest in new stocks. Let's focus on the profit that we have in the stocks in our portfolio. If they achieve our "Stop Loss" price we will sell the stock and have profit very similar to first column. If it goes up, it is even better.

                       %              IBOV (at same period)
PSSA3       +30.7            -0.1                 Increase Stop Loss to 36.18
BRFS3       +5.6              -5.0                 Increase Stop Loss to 66.44
BRFS3       +6.0              -5.9                 Just like previous
GETI3        +14.7            -13.9               Perfect movement. Let's leave the way it is.
TAEE11     -0.1               -8.8                 Increase Stop Loss to 19.94
BRFS3       +4.4              -8.0                 Just like previous BRFS3
EQTL3       +3.5             -8.5                  Increase Stop Loss to 34.68
LREN3       -2.4              -8.3                 Increase Stop Loss to 105.79
PSSA3       +2.1              -9.0                 Just like previous PSSA3
VLID3       +2.3              -8.8                 Don't change anything this week.
CTIP3        +4.2              -8.6                 Don't change anything this week
EQTL3      -3.2               -6.4                 Just like previous EQTL3

Next week I hope to find stocks that have more than 75% of change of achieving profit.

Have a great week.

Leo.

All Investments beating the markets

IBOV closed practically at the same price it opened, after falling -2% during the week and recovering on Friday. Can we say 52k points is a good support? Probably yes. So, let's wait and see if IBOV goes up next week.

Last week, my forecast was about EQTL3. The trade started and earned +1.5% in just 4 days (there was a holiday) but we will only sell 70% of what we bought when it achieves +2%. Let's wait one more week.

Last week I promised a summary of the stocks that we have 30% of what we bought. You can find the day I posted all forecasts just reading the blog.

                   Stock (%)      IBOV (% in the same period)
PSSA3         +43.1             + 6.7
BRFS3         + 8.6             + 1.4
BRFS3         + 9.0             + 0.5
GETI3         +11.9             - 8.0
TAEE11      + 3.3              - 2.6
BRFS3        + 7.3              - 1.7
EQTL3        + 6.4              - 2.2
LREN3        + 5.5              - 2.1
BBDC4       + 0.9              - 2.8
PSSA3        +11.7             - 2.8
VLID3        + 1.4              - 2.6
CTIP3         + 3.9              - 2.4

For next week.
GRND3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 17.18 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 16.33
(this trade has more than 70% of achieving profit according to my back-tests).

Have a great week!

Leo.

+44.1% of profit in 5 months

IBOV didn't have a good week, losing -2.5%. But, our investments are up one more time!

2 weeks ago, we invested in PSSA3. It earned +7.3% in the first week and after 2 weeks it earned + 12.5%. Excellent!

Last week I posted 2 forecasts (click here to read forecasts):
 - VLID3 earned +5.6% in just 5 days
 - CTIP3 earned +3.5 in just 5 days
We continue having more than 75% of profitable trades.

Another great news is that our first position in PSSA3 (bought almost 5 months ago) achieved +44.1% of profit! (Forecast posted on Feb 15th - read forecast here). This is perfect! In the same period, IBOV earned +6.5%.

All other stocks that we previously invested are beating IBOV. You can find a summary on previous posts and I will post a new summary next week.

For next week, there is 1 stocks that I want to invest (if the stock achieves my start gain price).

EQTL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 36.43 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 34.36

Have a great week!

Leo.

We earned +7.3% in just 1 week by following last week's forecast

Ibov had another lateral week and we earned +7.3%! Excellent!

I posted 2 forecasts last week (click here to read them) and both did very well. PSSA3 earned +7.3% and BBDC4 + 3.1%.

Now, we have 2 trades with PSSA3. The first one is earning +37.4% (while Ibov is +9.6% on the same period) and the second one +7.3% (while Ibov is -0.1%). Also, TRPL4 achieved +2% of profit this week.

All other stocks that I listed last week continue beating Ibov and we continue doing trades that have more than 75% of chance of achieving profit.

For next week, these are the stocks that I plan to invest (if the stock achieves my Start Gain price).
VLID3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 49.23 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 46.82
CTIP3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 33.84 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 32.44
(both stocks have more than 75% of chance of achieving +2% according to my back-tests).

Have a great week and show this blog to your friends.

Leo.

Our investments in stocks are kicking benchmark's ass

IBOV is trying to go up, which is a good signal. 3 weeks in a roll with a small gain. Since we practically don't invest in stocks correlated to IBOV, such as PETR4 and VALE5, our gains are bigger than IBOV.

2 weeks ago I posted 3 forecasts (click here to read them). and 2 of them already achieved profit and one is still going on (TRPL4). After these trades we have 93 profitable trades (74%) ; 32 losses (25%) and 1 trade going on (1%).

EQTL3 gained +2.5% in 2 weeks and LREN3 gained +2.2%. Therefore we sold 70% of what we bought and kept 30% of the original position.

This is the summary of all 30% positions that we have. All forecasts can be found on this blog.

                         %        IBOV (%) in the same period
PSSA3         +28.0        +9.0
BRFS3           +6.4        +3.7
BRFS3           +6.8        +2.7
GETI3            +9.5        -6.0
TAEE11         +3.4        -0.5
BRFS3           +5.2        +0.5
EQTL3           +2.5        -0.1
LREN3           +1.2        +0.1

These are the stocks that call my attention for next week:
PSSA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 36.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss 34.88
BBDC4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 28.22 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss 26.89

Please, share this blog with your friends that want to earn more money with their investments.

Have a great week!

Leo.

Stocks went down, but Effortless Investments went up!

IBOV opened at 52.7k points, increased to a maximum of 54.2k, but reduced, closing at 52.9k points. I believe it will continue lateral this week. I usually don't invest in stocks correlated to IBOV, therefore, our stocks are having a better results.

Last week 2 forecasts achieved profit!

TAEE11 (read forecast here) increased +3.4% this week. Therefore, we sold 70% of our position and kept 30%.

BRFS3 (read forecast here) increased +3.0% this week! And we sold 70% just like we did with TAEE11.

Total, we did 91 profitable trades (74%) and 32 losses (26%).

We have many "30% positions" to pay attention
                       %          IBOV (%) in same period
PSSA3      +25.7%       +7.5%
BRFS3      + 4.1%        +2.1%
BRFS3      + 4.5%        +1.2%
ALPA4      - 4.4%        - 2.3%
GETI3       + 7.4%       - 7.4%
TAEE11    + 3.4%       -1.9%
BRFS3       +2.9%        -1.0%

So far, so good! We cut losses fast and we let profit go as much as we can!

For next week, 3 stocks call my attention.
- TRPL4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 41.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 39.22
- EQTL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 34.62 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.18
- LREN3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 109.68 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 104.84

Have a great week, with a lot of profit!

Leo.

Ibov fell -8.3% in just 2 weeks. What to do now?

IBOV had another bad week, falling -3%, accumulating a loss of -8.3% in just 2 weeks. Now, it is safe to say that Ibov is in a downward trend and may fall even more.

Last week I posted 2 stocks. TAEE11 started and now, we have to wait to achieve Stop Gain or Loss. IGTA3 started and achieved loss.

I'm thinking about not investing this week and be more conservative.

First, let's increase the Stop Loss of some of the positions that we still have 30% of what we bought
 - IGTA3 - Increase Stop Loss to 25.94. If it goes up, better! If achieves this price, we will have +6.5% of profit.
 - PSSA3 - Same idea. Increase Stop Loss to 35. 44. We will have + 26% of profit

I will invest a small amount on just 1 stock:
 - BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 64.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what we buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 62.66

Have a great week.

Leo.

Ibovespa had a bad week. Let's be more conservative next week.

IBOV had a very bad week, opening at 57,249 and going down -5% closing at 54,377. The trend is not upward anymore and started a lateral trend.

Our both trades from last week started and achieved Stop Loss. It is ok, because we cut our losses really fast and have the money back to our account to do other trades.

For next week, I will be more conservative.

IGTA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 28.33 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 26.54
TAEE11: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 20.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 19.27

Sorry for the fast post, because I was really busy during this weekend.

Have a great week!

Leo.

Time to buy stocks in Brazil

IBOV had a normal week after so many good weeks in a roll. It closed at 57.2k points, which is practically the same closing point from last week. It continues in uptrend.

Last week I posted 2 forecasts (click here to read the forecast) and one trade didn't start (BVMF3), but the other one (GETI3) started and achived our ptofit! Therefore we sold 70% of what we bought at +2% and we kept the remaining 30%, which has +3.2% of profit now, whicle IBOV had +0.1% in the same period.

For next week, these are the stocks that I'm planning to invest (if the trade starts)
TRPL4 - Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 43.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 41.44
BBDC4 - Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 32.30 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you bought) +2% ; Stop Loss: 30.71
(Both stocks have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit, according to my back-tests)

This was a very quick post because I'm very busy here...

Have a great week!

Leo.

Stocks to invest in Brazil

Back from vacation.

IBOV had a normal week, testing the new resistance at 58k points. IBOV started the week at 56k and moved a little bit above 58k, but at the end of the week reduced and closed at 57k points. The trend is still up, but it is not moving as fast as it was 1 month ago.

On my last post that had forecasts (click here to read it) I posted 2 stocks (ALPA4 and BEEF3). ALPA4 achieved Profit on that week and BEEF3 achieved Loss. After these trades we did 117 trades, and 88 were profitable (75.2%) and 29 losses (24.8%).

For next week, there are 2 stocks that call my attention

GETI3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 15.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 14.27
BVMF3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 13.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss: 12.22

Have a great week!

Leo.

Ibovespa took off + Risk-free bonds at 13.25% per year in Brazil

First, I'm sorry for my absence the past few weeks, because I'm on vacation and I really needed some time to rest from everything. This weekend is the last one.

Very quick post: IBOV finally took off. On one of my last posts I highlighted the importance of breaking the resistance at 52k points (IBOV was trying to break it since the beginning of Dec/14 and broke it in the end of March/15). I mentioned that the next resistance was at 56k and it was going to be fast. IBOV achieved 56k points in just 3 weeks and did a minor correction last week closing above 56k, which is really important.

Corruption case in PETR4 is being solved (not yet) but at least shows to investors that Brazil is trying to solve corruption. Because of that PETR4 had a huge increase (of course, after having a huge loss in the last months).

Stocks that we have 30% of what we previously bought are going very well and I will comment them on my next post.

One last thing I want to say is the opportunity I see on Brazilian Bonds. LFT is paying 13.25% / year (Yes, Brazil has one of the highest interest rates in the world to control inflation). BUT, for a foreigner, who lives in a country with practically zero inflation, this is an amazing opportunity. First: LFT is risk-free (there is no chance Brazil will default). Second: Real is depreciated versus dollar (good moment to send money to Brazil). Third: You can always hedge Real vs Dollar to be more relaxed about currency exchange.

Currently, I'm finishing my MBA and have a huge loan to pay... If I had extra cash now, I would invest in LFT and would be very happy with 13.25% per year... This rate can change, but it usually moves 0.25% up or down every 45 days. Since inflation is not controlled, I don't think it will go down very soon... But, I would be very happy with any value risk-free above 10%.

Thanks for reading the blog and have a great week!

Leo.

+22%, +27% and benchmark +10%. Pick the right companies to invest in Brazil

IBOV had a good week gaining +2% and closing around 54k points. As I mentioned in my last post, the next resistance is at 56k.

I posted 2 forecasts last week. TRPL4 didn't start because price didn't achieve our trigger to buy it (Start Gain order).

BRFS3 started and achieved +2% of profit this week! And we sold 2 positions of BRFS3 because we had another position from 2 weeks ago. Now, we keep 30% of the position we bought.

After this forecast, this blog has 87 profitable forecasts (76%) and 28 (24%) losses.

In our portfolio, we have 30% of what we bought for these stocks

                      %              IBOV
 - IGTA3    +22.4%        +10.6%
 - PSSA3    +27.8%        +10.0%
 - BRPR3   +  4.6%        +  8.2%    (let's increase Stop Loss to 11.94)

For next week, 2 stocks call my attention.
 - ALPA4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF) achieves 10.21 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 9.71
- BEEF3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF) achieves 8.34 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 7.88
 (both stocks have 75% of chance of achieving profit based on my back-tests)

Have an excellent week!

Leo.