Good stocks to invest in Brazil

Hi guys,

Sorry for this very simple post. I will complement it tomorrow with all charts.

Last week, RADL3 started and almost achieved +2% of profit. Let’s wait this short week to see what happens.

This week I found out 2 stocks with more than 75% of chance of achieving profit and I will focus on them.

CTIP3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 32.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 30.74

GOLL4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 14.47 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 13.82

See you tomorrow.

Leo.

Which stocks should you invest in Brazil?

IBOV continues going down as a result of corruption in the largest company in Brazil (Petrobras - PETR4). So far, nobody was fired or arrested. Of course investors hate this and they are investing less in Brazilian stocks...

For this week, there is only 1 stock that I believe it is conservative.

RADL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF) achieves 24.44 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 22.94.

Have a great week!

Leo

Investments not correlated to IBOV

IBOV continues going down as you can see in the first chart. So, let's try to invest in stocks not correlated to IBOV.

On my last post I discussed VLID3 and it achieved our target of +2% in just 2 days, so, we sold our position as you can see in chart 2.

Here are the stocks that call my attention for next week and you can see that they have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit (if the trade starts).

CTIP3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 33.59 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +3% ; Stop Loss 31.91
PSSA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 31.41 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 29.73

VLID3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 40.85 ; Stop Gain (sell 100% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 38.88

Have a great week and let's see if this strategy works for us.

Leo.

Update:Articles in the US about corruption in Brazil

I'm posting some articles in the US talking about this subject:

'Biggest Corruption Case In The History Of Brazil' Continues With More Arrests, Warrants Issued

http://www.ibtimes.com/biggest-corruption-case-history-brazil-continues-more-arrests-warrants-issued-1724340

Brazilian police arrest 18 in Petrobras corruption raids

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30055817


Can Brazil solve this? I really hope so!

Leo.

Come on Brazil, let's fight against corruption!

As you can see on the first chart, IBOV continues inside the low tendency channel that started in September. The probability shows it will continue going down unless something really strong happens and "break" the channel. The problem in Brazil right now is the big corruption in the largest company in Brazil (Petrobras - PETR4) which may involve politicians. Of course this is not the kind of news that attract international investors... So, many of them are selling their positions and they will probably wait for a definition. If the government acts fast and get the money back (some news says around US$ 90M), re-invest, and arrest evereybody, this could show a new credibility in Brazil that international investors will like.

As an optimistic about Brazil, I hope the police and governmwnt solve this as fast as possible, so, Brazil can focus in other important issues.

Regarding investments, I continue with the same suggestion from last week (KROT3) because it has a low correlation with IBOV or PETR4 and KROT3 has a good probability of going up if the trade starts.

The other stock that calls my attention is VLID3.

VLID3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 39.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 100% if achieves) +2% ; Stop Loss 37.58

Have a great week!

Leo.

Is it time to buy stocks in Brazil?

My speech continues the same (unfortunately)... IBOV with small ups and downs, long term direction is lateral (some people may say it is down) as you can see in the first chart.

This week one stock calls my attention and I will take the risk, even though IBOV is telling me to wait a little bit more. This stock is not very correlated to IBOV which may help us.

We already earned around 40% with KROT3 this year, and this week may be a good week to buy this stock (of course, only if achieves Start Gain trigger).

KROT3: Start Gain (Buy ONLY IF achieves) 18.09 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 16.84

Have a great week!

Leo.

IBOV after presidential elections

As I expected IBOV opened on Monday with a big gap, went down almost -7%, and closed at -3%.

On Thursday and Friday IBOV had a big recovery due to an euphoria in Japanese and US markets, which are breaking their own records, and resulted in more people buying stocks in all markets, including Brazil.

IBOV is still far away from its record (in 2008, before the crisis, achieved 74,000 points) and currently it is around 55,000. While many countries already passed their records, Brazil still has a long way to achieve 74,000 again.

I analyzed many stocks this week and there are good opportunities with more than 70% of chance of achieving profit. There is only one BIG problem: The size of the Stop Loss.

I choose my investments based on the probability of achieving profit and based on the maximum loss that I can have (Stop Loss). Due to the big volatility that has happened in IBOV in the last weeks, all stocks I would invest have a Stop Loss higher than 10%.

Since there is always a probability of loss (around 30%) in these methodologies and the Stop Loss is 10%, the amount of money that we can invest is low and the risk is high.

I prefer to wait 1 more week and do more conservative trades. Remember, your goal is not to get rich in 1 month or 1 trade (this doesn't happen). Your goal is to get more and more money every trade with discipline and get rich in long-term. I've seen many people that say that earned 10% in one day, but believe me, this people take many more risks than us, and believe me, they will not tell you when they lose 10% in one day...

To conclude, let's wait one more week and let's earn money without having too many risks.

Have a great week.

Leo.

On Monday, there will be a gap of loss

I will have to be fast and efficient tonight.

Brazil decided for re-electing the current President with 51% of votes. As I described on previous posts this is not what investors prefer (IBOV fell more than 10% in the last 2 weeks). In my personal opinion, IBOV will open on monday with a gap of loss around -5%.

It is possible to earn a lot of money when the markets go down. I already wrote 2 posts about this topic and there are many methodologies to operate this way.

Traders are ready for everything! As you know, on this blog we let profit continue as much as possible and we cut losses really fast. We will continue this way and I hope to help as many people as possible, because many of them will see part of their investments go down even more of what they saw in October.

Have a great week! And please, share this post with your friends that invest in stocks because for sure we can recover from this loss.

Leo.

1 more week to definition. Until there: be cautious

IBOV had another volatile week as it was expected as you can see on the first chart. I have been discussing this with you for a couple of weeks and I believe this will happen again next week, because the elections for president will be next Sunday. The Markets show it prefer Neves than Roussef (current president) as I described in one of my previous posts.

Last week I posted 2 forecasts and both started. NATU3 achieved profit in just 2 days as you can see on the second chart, but RENT3 started, gained +1.7% but it didn’t achieve our target and went down as all other stocks in Brazil.

After 103 trades, we maintained 74% of profitable forecasts and 26% had loss.

Next week I’m not going to operate, because I prefer to wait and do more conservative trades.

Have a great week.

Leo

Opportunities in stocks in Brazil

After the offcial results of the first round of the elections in Brazil IBOV had an amazing Monday, some indefinition from Tuesday to Thursday, and fell on Friday. Therefore, volatility and a lot of indefinition about the future.

In my opinion it will be like this until the second round (in 2 weeks). Marina Silva (3rd place) declared that she will support Neves (2nd place) in the second round and this increases the chances that Neves may win the elections (that is what most investors want) as I described in my previous post.

Because of the great day on monday, we couldn't buy KROT3 because the stock opened with a big GAP, and the opening price was much higher (more than 3%) than our Start Gain price, therefore, we couldn't start the trade.

For this week, 2 stocks call my attention, and let's see if these trades start this week.

NATU3 - Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 40.31 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 37.61
RENT3 - Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 38.82 ; Stop Gain (sell 100% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 36.56

Have a great week.

Leo.

Interesting... How Ibovespa is being affected by Presidential elections

As I wrote in my previous post, I was expecting a lot of volatility, but this was more than what I was thinking! IBOV went down on monday just 1 week before the 1st round of the elections, but recovered a little bit on Thursday and Friday as you can see on the first chart.

Where is IBOV going? Honestly, anything can happen during the next month, until the 2nd round. One thing that is clear for investors (and I mean American investors because they represent more than 50% of volume negotiated in Ibovespa) is that they prefer Aecio Neves than Dilma Roussef. This is based on the correlation that every time that Brazil showed a pool saying that Roussef would be re-elected, IBOV went down and every time it showed she could lose, IBOV went up.

Just to complement my ideas, here is a phrase from Bloomberg to support my position and the entire article: For much of the year stocks rallied on falling support for Rousseff in opinion surveys as investors bet an opposition candidate would do more to improve Brazil’s business environment, slash above-target inflation, and reduce deficit spending. Since Sept. 2, when the president started rebounding in the polls, the Ibovespa index has lost 11.9 percent and the real dropped 8.7 percent against the dollar.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-05/neves-to-face-rousseff-in-brazil-in-surprise-comeback.html

Therefore, I believe we will have a month of volatility and I believe IBOV may go up next week, because Neves reduced the distance to Roussef at the end of last week and this was confirmed today after the elections.

This week I will continue being conservative and I will only invest in KROT3 (if the trade starts)

Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 15.42 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +3% ; Stop Loss 14.19

Have a great week and please, share this post with your friends that like to invest in stocks.

Leo.

1 week to Brazilian elections and the effects on Stock Markets

As I mentioned on my last post I was expecting a lateral movement in Brazilian stocks due to the first round of elections for president in Brazil and that happened. Investors continue waiting to see what is going to happen, because the level of confidence in Brazilian economy will vary depending of the actions and plans of the next president. As you can see on the graph, IBOV had a very small reduction and stopped at 56,000 points for 4 days and went up on Friday.

Next week I posted about LAME4, but the trad didn't start because the price didn't achieve our Start Gain price.

FIBR3 and ITUB4 continue performing very well, achieving +16.2% and 12.7% of profit since the day we bought and we continue holding them.

SMTO3 and ABRE11 gave some bad signals last week and I prefer to increase the Stop Loss for both. SMTO3 increase to 40.63 and ABRE11 increase to 37.78. We would still have profit with both and let's see if they increase their prices next week.

After doing lots of analyses, for this week, I believe this is the best opportunity.

GETI3 - Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 15.92 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 15.08

Have a great week.

Leo.

I'm here to help you to invest in Brazil

As I expected IBOV was lateral last week. Elections for president in Brazil will be in 2 weeks and I believe big investors are waiting for this defitinion and invest more. But, in Brazil, there are 2 rounds. Therefore, the 2 best candidates will go to the second round in November.

Because we there is always the probability that the market may go dow, we increased many of our Stops and we sold some stocks last week.

Here is the summary:

KROT3: Sold with +28% of profit
IGTA3: Sold with +12% of profit
BRML3: Sold with +3.5% of profit
PCAR4: Sold with +3% of profit

We still continue with (check previous posts to read the forecast about these stocks):
ITUB4: +13%
ABRE11: +11%
FIBR3: +16% (even with IBOV going down, it increased 3 weeks in a row)
ODPV3: +2.4%
SMTO3: +8%

Can we buy again some of the stocks that we sold? YES. I will just wait next week to check if the prices are good to buy again. As usual, we will always use "Start Gain" order, to make sure the movement has more probability of going up.

This week there is one stock that may be a good investment if the trade starts.
LAME4: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 15.11 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 14.17

Have a great week!

Leo.

Next week defines if we return to Up, Lateral or Down

IBOV seems to have achieved its target for price reduction (lower red line), but this time it was much faster than the other times. In my opinion, this is not good because it shows a little bit of fear about the future. Investors prefered to sell the stocks instead of keeping it. At the end of this week, IBOV continues in high tendency, but, I believe it will stay lateral the next weeks.

Due to that uncertainty, I prefer to increase the Stop of most of our stocks, so, if the price achieves our Stop, we sell the stock and wait for a more conservative scenario (remember, I don't want to lose my money and I don't want to see you losing yours). Because we are not sure if IBOV can go really down, I prefer to be conservative.

KROT3 - happened a slit 4:1 - Increase Stop Loss to 14.69 (if we sell, we will have 30% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

IGTA3 - Increase Stop Loss to 24.89 (if we sell, we will have 12% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

ITUB4 - Increase Stop Loss to 36.68 (if we sell, we will have 10% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

BRML3 - Increase Stop Loss to 20.17 (if we sell, we will have 4% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

ABRE11 - Increase Stop Loss to 37.44 (if we sell, we will have 4.5% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

PCAR4 - Increase Stop Loss to 109.22 (if we sell, we will have 3.5% of profit since the day we bought). If we keep it, it means it went up, so, it increases our profit.

FIBR3 is going completely against IBOV and increased +13% in 2 weeks!

Let's wait one more week to buy stocks.

Have a great week.

Leo.

Ibovespa - Just waiting for the right moment to buy again

Ibovespa had a normal reduction this week after practically 3 weeks going up. This is normal and it may continue next week (as it happened in the previous months).

The stocks that you and I have continue in high tendency (as Ibovespa) and we are not thinking about selling them.

For this week, I continue with the same idea of last week: I couldn't find stocks with more than 70% of chance of achieving profit that have a small Stop Loss. I don't like to invest in stocks that have a huge Stop Loss, because there is always a probability of achieving loss and I (and I'm sure you) don't like losing a lot of money in just 1 trade.

Let's wait for next week, because I think prices may reduce a little bit more and we will have better opportunities (smaller Stop Losses).

Have a great week!

Leo.

Ibovespa subindo subindo subindo

Desde o meu último post 2 semanas atrás, o Ibovespa subiu quase 9%, o que é incrível. Devido a isso, muitos dos nossos investimentos estao ainda mais rentaveis do que antes, porque estamos escolhendo muito boas ações para investir.

No meu último post (clique aqui para ler o post), propus 4 investimentos e 3 iniciaram e ja atingiram o nosso alvo. PSSA3 e ODPV3 ganhou +2% e SMTO3 ganhou +13,4%! Então, vendemos 70% do que nós compramos e agora vamos continuar com 30% para vender a um preço mais elevado. Após estes resultados, embora o IBOV tenha tido muitos altos e baixos em 1 ano e meio, fizemos 75 trades lucrativos ​​(74%) e 26 perdas (26%).

Abaixo segue o resumo das ações que temos 30% do que nós compramos (ver posts anteriores para ler a previsão).

KROT3: + 45% (comprado 4 meses atrás)
IGTA3: + 23% (comprado 3 meses atrás)
KROT3: + 21% (comprado 3 meses atrás)
ITUB4: + 21% (comprado 2,5 meses atrás)
BRML3: + 20% (comprado 2,5 meses atrás)
ABRE11: + 9% (comprado 2 meses atrás)
PCAR4: + 7% (comprado 1,5 meses atrás)
ITUB4: + 21% (comprado 1,5 meses atrás)
ABRE11: + 7% (comprado 1 mês atrás)
KROT3: + 6% (comprado há 20 dias atrás)
FIBR3: + 2% (comprado há 20 dias atrás)
PSSA3: + 2% (comprado há 2 semanas)
ODPV3: + 2% (comprado há 2 semanas)
SMTO3: + 13% (comprado há 2 semanas)

Analisei algumas ações para esta semana e não consegui encontrar um bom investimento. Ou porque a probabilidade de alcançar o lucro não está acima de 70% ou porque o Stop Loss era alto e nós não poderiamos investir muito por causa do risco.

Então, vamos ver o que acontece no mercado na próxima semana e esperar por um aumento no preço das ações que já temos.

Tenham uma ótima semana e por favor compartilhem este blog com seus amigos no Facebook, Twitter, etc, para ele continuar expandindo!

Muito obrigado.

Leo.

Ibovespa going UP UP UP

Since my last post 2 weeks ago Ibovespa increased almost 9% which is amazing. Due to that, lots of our investments are even more profitable than before, because we are choosing very good stocks to invest.

On my last post (click here to read the post) I proposed 4 investments and 3 started and achieved our target. PSSA3 and ODPV3 earned +2% and SMTO3 earned +13.4%! So, we sold 70% of what we bought and now we will continue with 30% to sell at a higher price. After these results, even though IBOV had many ups and downs in 1.5 years, we did 75 profitable trades (74%) and 26 losses (26%).

Bellow is the summary of the stocks that we have 30% of what we bought (see previous posts to read the forecast).

KROT3: +45% (bought 4 months ago)
IGTA3: +23% (bought 3 months ago)
KROT3: +21% (bought 3 months ago)
ITUB4: +21% (bought 2.5 months ago)
BRML3: +20% (bought 2.5 months ago)
ABRE11: +9% (bought 2 months ago)
PCAR4: +7% (bought 1.5 month ago)
ITUB4: +21% (bought 1.5 month ago)
ABRE11: +7% (bought 1 month ago)
KROT3: +6% (bought 20 days ago)
FIBR3: +2% (bought 20 days ago)
PSSA3: +2% (bought 2 weeks ago)
ODPV3: +2% (bought 2 weeks ago)
SMTO3: +13% (bought 2 weeks ago)

I analyzed some stocks for this week and I couldn't find some good investment for this week. Either because the probability of achieving profit is not above 70% or because the Stop Loss was to high and we wouldn't invest a lot because of the risk.

So, let's see what happens in the market next week and wait for an increase in the price of the stocks we already have.

Have a great week and share this blog with your friends on Facebook, Twitter, etc, so it continues to expand!

Thank you very much.

Leo.

Acoes do Ibovespa continuam extremamente atrativas

Ibovespa teve uma semana volátil e continua dentro do grande canal de tendência de alta que começou em abril, como você pode ver no gráfico 1.

Devido a esta volatilidade, nesta semana duas acoes atingiram lucro (KROT3 e FIBR3), mas duas deram perda (GGBR4 e CSNA3). Após estes resultados (quase 1 ano e 4 meses) temos 72 previsões lucrativas (73%) e 26 perdas (27%). Isso prova que a idéia de só investir em ações que têm mais de 70% de chance de alcançar o lucro está funcionando. Vou continuar da mesma maneira e vou tentar encontrar formas de tornar isso ainda melhor.

KROT3 é realmente impressionante, e já cresceu 40% desde a primeira vez que comprei, cerca de 3 meses atrás. Desde a primeira compra, já compramos mais 2 vezes, cada vez que ela reduz um pouco o seu preço.

Na semana passada, nós aumentamos nosso Stop para ESTC3 e vendemos com +16% de lucro depois de 3 meses.

Aqui estão as ações que chamam a minha atenção para a próxima semana:

ABRE11: Compra Start (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 38,47; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você compra) + 2%; Stop de Perda 35,74

PSSA3: Compra Start (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 32,71; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você compra) + 2%; Stop de Perda 30,94

ODPV3: Compra Start (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 9,53; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você compra) + 2%; Stop de Perda 9,07

SMTO3: Compra Start (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 40,02; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você compra) + 2%; Stop de Perda 36,72

Tenham uma ótima semana!

Leo.

Stocks in Brazil continue extremely attractive for investors

Ibovespa had a volatile week and continues inside the big high tendency channel that started in April as you can see in chart 1.

Because of this volatility this week 2 stocks achieved Profit (KROT3 and FIBR3) but 2 achieved loss (GGBR4 and CSNA3). After these results (almost 1 year and 4 months) we have 72 profitable forecasts (73%) and 26 losses (27%). This is proving that the idea of only investing on stocks that have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit is working. I will continue the same way and I will try to find ways to make this even better.

KROT3 is really impressive, and it already grew 40% since the first time we bought, around 3 months ago. Since that day, we already bought 2 more times, every time it reduces a little bit its price.

Last week, we increased our stop for ESTC3 and sold it with +16% of profit after 3 months.

Here are the stocks that call my attention for next week:

ABRE11: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 38.47 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 35.74

PSSA3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 32.71 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 30.94

ODPV3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 9.53 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 9.07

SMTO3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 40.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 36.72

Have a great week!

Leo.

Previsao de bons investimentos em acoes no Ibovespa

O Ibovespa continua em tendência de alta e, como você pode ver no gráfico 1, parece ter atingido o suporte e a probabilidade indica que vai continuar subindo na próxima semana. Vai ser ruim se o IBOV não confirmar o sinal de subida e começar uma tendência lateral, depois de tantos meses subindo.

Na semana passada, eu postei duas acoes e apenas uma iniciou (CSNA3) e, agora, temos que esperar para ver se atingira Stop de Perda ou Stop de Lucro.

Temos várias ações em nosso portfólio, como você pode ver no meu último post, e eu quero aumentar o Stop de Perda da ESTC3, porque na semana passada esta acao me deu um sinal ruim. Até agora, temos cerca de 16% do lucro com a ação desde o dia em que compramos. Vamos aumentar Stop de Perda para 27,44. Se ela subir, continuamos com a acao. Se ela cair, nós venderemos e teremos +16% de lucro. Todas as outras ações podem continuar com o Stop de Perda originais, porque continuam subindo.

Abaixo estão as ações que chamam a minha atenção para a próxima semana:

KROT3: Iniciar a Compra (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 63,02; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você comprar) + 2%; Stop de Perda 58,79

ABRE11: Iniciar a Compra (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 39,02; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você comprar) + 2%; Stop de Perda 37,22

FIBR3: Iniciar a Compra (comprar SOMENTE SE alcançar) 22,85; Stop de Lucro (vender 70% do que você comprar) + 3%; Stop de Perda 21,44

Tenham uma ótima semana!

Leo.

Forecast of good investments in Brazil

Ibovespa continues in high tendency and, as you can see in chart 1, it seems to have achieved the support and probability shows that it will continue going up next week. It will be bad if IBOV doesn’t confirm this signal and start a lateral tendency after so many months going up.

Last week, I poste 2 trades and only one started (CSNA3) and we have to wait to check if it achieves Stop Loss or Stop Gain.

We have several stocks in our portfolio as you can see from my last post, and I want to increase the Stop Loss for ESTC3, because last week it gave me a bad signal. So far we have around 16% of profit with this stock since the day we bought. Let’s increase Stop Loss to 27.44. IF it goes up, we continue with the stock. If it goes down, we sell it and have 16% of profit. All the other stocks can continue with the original Stop Loss, because they continue going up.

Here are the stocks that call my attention for next week:

KROT3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 63.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 58.79

ABRE11: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 39.02 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 37.22

FIBR3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 22.85 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +3% ; Stop Loss 21.44

Have a great week!

Leo.