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Sunday, July 26, 2015

IBOV missed important support. What to do now?

After 8 weeks IBOV missed the support at 52k points, falling down -5.9% to 49.2k points. This is a bad signal because Ibov is in a downward trend after this week.

In my personal opinion, this is happening because there is an expectation that Brazilian Central Bank will continue increasing Interest rate to control inflation. This attracts more investments to fixed income instead of stocks.

This week, I'm not planning to invest in new stocks. Let's focus on the profit that we have in the stocks in our portfolio. If they achieve our "Stop Loss" price we will sell the stock and have profit very similar to first column. If it goes up, it is even better.

                       %              IBOV (at same period)
PSSA3       +30.7            -0.1                 Increase Stop Loss to 36.18
BRFS3       +5.6              -5.0                 Increase Stop Loss to 66.44
BRFS3       +6.0              -5.9                 Just like previous
GETI3        +14.7            -13.9               Perfect movement. Let's leave the way it is.
TAEE11     -0.1               -8.8                 Increase Stop Loss to 19.94
BRFS3       +4.4              -8.0                 Just like previous BRFS3
EQTL3       +3.5             -8.5                  Increase Stop Loss to 34.68
LREN3       -2.4              -8.3                 Increase Stop Loss to 105.79
PSSA3       +2.1              -9.0                 Just like previous PSSA3
VLID3       +2.3              -8.8                 Don't change anything this week.
CTIP3        +4.2              -8.6                 Don't change anything this week
EQTL3      -3.2               -6.4                 Just like previous EQTL3

Next week I hope to find stocks that have more than 75% of change of achieving profit.

Have a great week.

Leo.

Sunday, July 12, 2015

All Investments beating the markets

IBOV closed practically at the same price it opened, after falling -2% during the week and recovering on Friday. Can we say 52k points is a good support? Probably yes. So, let's wait and see if IBOV goes up next week.

Last week, my forecast was about EQTL3. The trade started and earned +1.5% in just 4 days (there was a holiday) but we will only sell 70% of what we bought when it achieves +2%. Let's wait one more week.

Last week I promised a summary of the stocks that we have 30% of what we bought. You can find the day I posted all forecasts just reading the blog.

                   Stock (%)      IBOV (% in the same period)
PSSA3         +43.1             + 6.7
BRFS3         + 8.6             + 1.4
BRFS3         + 9.0             + 0.5
GETI3         +11.9             - 8.0
TAEE11      + 3.3              - 2.6
BRFS3        + 7.3              - 1.7
EQTL3        + 6.4              - 2.2
LREN3        + 5.5              - 2.1
BBDC4       + 0.9              - 2.8
PSSA3        +11.7             - 2.8
VLID3        + 1.4              - 2.6
CTIP3         + 3.9              - 2.4

For next week.
GRND3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 17.18 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 16.33
(this trade has more than 70% of achieving profit according to my back-tests).

Have a great week!

Leo.





Sunday, July 5, 2015

+44.1% of profit in 5 months

IBOV didn't have a good week, losing -2.5%. But, our investments are up one more time!

2 weeks ago, we invested in PSSA3. It earned +7.3% in the first week and after 2 weeks it earned + 12.5%. Excellent!

Last week I posted 2 forecasts (click here to read forecasts):
 - VLID3 earned +5.6% in just 5 days
 - CTIP3 earned +3.5 in just 5 days
We continue having more than 75% of profitable trades.

Another great news is that our first position in PSSA3 (bought almost 5 months ago) achieved +44.1% of profit! (Forecast posted on Feb 15th - read forecast here). This is perfect! In the same period, IBOV earned +6.5%.

All other stocks that we previously invested are beating IBOV. You can find a summary on previous posts and I will post a new summary next week.

For next week, there is 1 stocks that I want to invest (if the stock achieves my start gain price).

EQTL3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 36.43 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 34.36

Have a great week!

Leo.