Prediction of good Investments - Probabilities

As I do every Sunday, yesterday I did my prediction of good investments for this week.
After analyzing my backtests this morning, I realized that I should reduce my goal in 3 stocks (BRPR3, CGAS5, RENT3). Of course they can achieve +3% or even +5%, but I prefer to be conservative.
I also could increase my goal in CMIG4, but, as I mentioned before, I prefer to be conservative and gain +3%.
REMEMBER: You are not going to get rich in just 1 trade or 1 week. You are going to get rich after doing good trades during 5 or 10 years.
Best,
Leonardo.

Sunday = Prediction of good investments

A lot of stocks are activating the same pattern this week, therefore, I will post more stocks than the usual today, because all of them can increase their prices IF the trade starts.
On Monday morning I will post the probability of each of them achieving their goal.
Best,
Leonardo.

PS: Start Gain = Buy only IF prices go higher than the price I say. That is why many trades do NOT start (because prices did NOT go higher than the price I request to buy the stock). BUT, IF prices go higher, it tells me that it exists a good probability that it will go even higher.

BRPR3 - Start Gain: 20.21 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 18.74
CESP6 - Start Gain: 20.47 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 19.24
CMIG4 - Start Gain: 20.93 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 19.45
CPFE3 - Start Gain: 21.52 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 20.19
CGAS5 - Start Gain: 52.76 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 50.15
MDIA3 - Start Gain: 87.52 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 83.05
RENT3 - Start Gain: 32.52 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 30.69

11th profitable investment of this blog (+5% in 6 days)

As I predicted on July 7th TRPL4 was going down even more than it had already been. As I mentioned on June 16th it is possible to earn Money when the Market is going down if you have a good methodology.

That is exactly what happened!

This trade started 6 days ago and today it achieved my goal of 5%!

Lets celebrate because this is the second profit of this week!

Best,
Leonardo.

10th Profitable Investment of the blog

In just 1 day, ELET6 achieved the price I predicted yesterday!!! Actually, it increased +4.9% in just 1 day! Incredible!

Did you do this fast trade?

Best,
Leonardo.

CIEL3 - correcting my mistake

I made a mistake last night. Correct prices for CIEL3 are:
Start Gain: 56.72 ; Stop Gain 58.42 +3% ; Stop Loss: 54.35

If you followed what I said last night, you already gained +2.1% in just 1 day. The good thing is that you can sell the stock in the original price I said (+3%) or you can try to earn more, waiting it achieves 58.42.

Best,
Leonardo.

Sunday = Prediction of good investments

I am having a problem with my homebroker tonight, therefore I am only able to show statistics for AMBV4. My goal is to show statistics for all predictions.

AMBV4 - Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 84.02 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 80.75
CIEL3 - Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 55.52 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 53.85
UGPA3 - Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 53.94 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 51.39
ELET6 - Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 9.38 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 8.69
SUZB5 - Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 8.34 ; Stop Gain +3% ; Stop Loss: 7.75

Last week, POMO4 did not start and TRPL4 started (both predictions were to earn money if prices go down). Let's see what happens with TRPL4.

Best,
Leonardo.

Prediction of good investments - Long Term

A lot of people are telling me that they prefer to invest in long term than doing fast trades.

And everybody knows that in the future I will create my own investment fund.

IF I had created my investment fund, I would invest on these stocks (10% on each).

PS: This is completely different from my other posts (this is not a trade - there is no Start Gain or Stop Loss/Stop Gain). This is group of stocks that I would invest. I hope all of them increase their prices, but I know that due to probabilities, some will increase and some will reduce. My plan is to beat IBOV, Treasury Bonds and Regular savings.

PS2: If you invest your money in funds, you know you should not look at the stock prices every single day, because a lot of things can happen during the month, and you are investing in LONG term. Therefore, just put a follow up on your Outlook to remind you to visit this page on July 31. then, again in the end of the next months.

PS3: If you prefer to do fast trades, I will continue to post them every Sunday.

I just finished one more algorythm!

I just finished one more backtest using all Brazilian stocks since Jul/2007.
Result: Green is good ; Red is bad!

Therefore, I am only going to invest in green!

On my next post I will show some predictions using this methodology and let's see what happens.

Best,
Leonardo.

Prediction of good investments

As I mentioned last week, I would say some hints to earn more money when the market is going down. It is a little bit more advanced than investing when the market is going up, but it can produce huge profits as I have been describing on many of my last posts.

Also, I will start to show the probability of achieving profit based on the 2 methodologies I have. Therefore, every week, I will post the prediction and all backtests that support it.

PS: All prices were downloaded on yahoo finance.

Results - 3 months

This is the result of 3 months investing using just one methodology. It is much better than 3 benchmarks, specially, if this blog is compared to IBOV (Brazilian Stock Market) and, as everybody knows, I am only investing in Brazilian stocks.
In July I will start investing with 2 methodologies and I will show my investments when the market is going down.
Best,
Leonardo.