Forecasts on this blog earning +21%, +15% and +11% while benchmark around +1%

IBOV had a bad week, falling almost -4%.

BUT, this doesn't mean that we lost money. Our stocks earned a lot of money! And I hope you invested in them when I posted the day that you should have bought them.

As you can see in the chart below, PSSA3 earned +21.0%, while IBOV earned +1.6% in the same period...

Also, BRPR3 earned +15.0% in 2 weeks, while IBOV is -0.1% in the same period...

IGTA3 is earning +11.2%, while IBOV is +2.2% in the same period. And MPLU3 is earning +1.4%, while IBOV is +1.3%. For MPLU3, we have to increase our Stop Loss to 33.16, because the stock had a bad movement last week.

Also, our forecast for last week initiated and we have to wait it achieves Stop (Gain or Loss).

For next week, I couldn't find a stock that had a good probability of going up with a good risk. So, we are going to watch the market next week.

Have a great week!

Leo.

It is cheap to invest in Brazil if you have US dollars. Pick the right stocks to earn more money.

Against the probability, IBOV had a great week, gaining +4%! In my personal opinion, this was motivated by the increase in foreign investors in stocks in Brazil, because R$ achieved its most depreciated value against the US$ since 2003, and also, because volume was above the average of 2015. So, stocks in Brazil are cheap to invest if you have US$. If you pick the right ones, you can earn more than IBOV.

Last week, I said that BRPR3 had a good probability of going up (read forecast here) and that is exactly what happened! BRPR3 gained +5.1% and, in the same period, IBOV gained +3.7%. Therefore, we sold 70% of what we bought and we will continue with the remaining 30% of our position.

Below, you can read a summary about the other stocks that we still have 30% of what we bought:
                     Stock       IBOV      Comments
    RADL3   +7.2%       +4.7%     This trade was closed this week. It initiated in December/14
    MPLU3   +5.5%       +5.1%     Trade initiated in Jan/15
    IGTA3    +11.4%     +6.0%      Trade initiated in Jan/15
    PSSA3    +16.2%     +5.4%      Trade initiated in Feb/15
    BRPR3    +5.1%       +3.7%      Trade initiated in Mar/15

For next week, this is the stock that I believe that has a good expected return compared to its risk:
BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 63.78 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 60.88
(according to my back-tests this stock has 79% of chance of achieving profit if the trade starts)

Have a great week and show this blog to your friends that invest in Emerging Markets or Brazil

Leo.

Investments: Pick the right stocks to invest in Brazil

IBOV had another bad week, goind down -3% and closing at 48.5k points, after losing practicaly -3% in the previous week. IBOV is back to a low tendency after going lateral for a couple of weeks. Threfore, we will be even more conservative in our trades.

By the way, our stocks continue very well (we selected stocks that had a good chance of going up). Here is the summary of the stocks we have (in the same period, IBOV is having negative return).
 - RADL3: +8.5% (let's increase Stop Loss to 26.19, which would result at +7.2% of profit)
 - MPLU3: +6.2%
 - IGTA3: + 7,1%
 - PSSA3: +8.0%

Last week we closed our position in CTIP3 at +3% of profit as you can read about it in the previous post.

For next week, there are some stocks that present more than 75% of chance of achieving profit, but I will post only 1, that I believe presents the best opportunity (if the trade starts).

BRPR3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 11.52 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 10.88
This trade has 78% of chance based on my back-tests

Have an excellent week!

Leo.

Investments in Stocks in Brazil: Summary of the week

Last week was not good for Ibovespa, going down -3.1%, and closing below 50k points, which is an important support for the index.

Our trade from last week (RENT3) didn't start, because the price didn't achieve our trigger. CTIP3 had started 2 weeks ago and achieved Stop Loss this week.

We still have stocks in our portfolio (30% of the stocks we previously bought) that are presenting a great result compared to IBOV.

 - RADL3: +11.7%
 - CTIP3: +3.9% (let's increase Stop Loss for this position this week to 32.94, which would result in 3% of profit if stock continue going down. If it goes up, even better)
 - MPLU3: +6.9%
 - IGTA3: +7.7%
 - PSSA3: +6.9%

Also, we closed our position in BRFS3, because the 30% that we had went down. So, if you consider the 70% that we previously sold, this trade had 0% of result, which is ok, because we didn't lose any money. That is why I like to sell 70% with +2% of profit, because the remaining can go up (great), but, if it goes down, it doesn't hurt our P&L.

For next week, I don't have any good stock to invest, because scenario is not favorable to buy stocks (too risky). I prefer to wait one more week and be more conservative.

Have a great week, with a lot of profit!

Leo

There are smallcaps stocks beating benchmark in Brazil by far

IBOV had a regular week, trying to close above 52,000 points. If it closes next week above 52k, it has a good chance of continue going up. If it closes below, it shows it didn't have enough strength and it will continue lateral.

I posted 2 forecasts last week (click here to read the forecast). Let's analyze the results of both.

CTIP3 started last week, but the stock remained lateral. Let's wait one more week to check if it achieves +2% of profit.

BRFS3 achieved 2% of profit in just 3 days, therefore, we sold 70% with this profit and we will wait a couple of weeks for the remaining 30%.

Since this blog was created, we had 84 profitable forecasts out of 111, which means that 75.7% of trades were profitable. This is great, because we are only investing in stocks that have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit.

In 2015, we are 100%! 4 out of 4. Small numbers, but IBOV started terribly, so, we are being more conservative than usual.

As you know, we have the remaining 30% of other stocks we previously bought:

 - RADL3: +16.6%
 - CTIP3: +7.4%
 - MPLU3: +5.3%
 - IGTA3: +10.1%
 - PSSA3: +9.8%

IBOV is around +2% in the same period...

And below is my forecast for next week.

RENT3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 35.03 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.31
(this trade has 76% of chance of achieving profit, according to my back-tests)

Have a great week!

Leo.