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Sunday, March 1, 2015

There are smallcaps stocks beating benchmark in Brazil by far

IBOV had a regular week, trying to close above 52,000 points. If it closes next week above 52k, it has a good chance of continue going up. If it closes below, it shows it didn't have enough strength and it will continue lateral.

I posted 2 forecasts last week (click here to read the forecast). Let's analyze the results of both.

CTIP3 started last week, but the stock remained lateral. Let's wait one more week to check if it achieves +2% of profit.

BRFS3 achieved 2% of profit in just 3 days, therefore, we sold 70% with this profit and we will wait a couple of weeks for the remaining 30%.

Since this blog was created, we had 84 profitable forecasts out of 111, which means that 75.7% of trades were profitable. This is great, because we are only investing in stocks that have more than 70% of chance of achieving profit.

In 2015, we are 100%! 4 out of 4. Small numbers, but IBOV started terribly, so, we are being more conservative than usual.

As you know, we have the remaining 30% of other stocks we previously bought:

 - RADL3: +16.6%
 - CTIP3: +7.4%
 - MPLU3: +5.3%
 - IGTA3: +10.1%
 - PSSA3: +9.8%


IBOV is around +2% in the same period...

And below is my forecast for next week.

RENT3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 35.03 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 33.31
(this trade has 76% of chance of achieving profit, according to my back-tests)

Have a great week!

Leo.

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