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Sunday, March 22, 2015

It is cheap to invest in Brazil if you have US dollars. Pick the right stocks to earn more money.

Against the probability, IBOV had a great week, gaining +4%! In my personal opinion, this was motivated by the increase in foreign investors in stocks in Brazil, because R$ achieved its most depreciated value against the US$ since 2003, and also, because volume was above the average of 2015. So, stocks in Brazil are cheap to invest if you have US$. If you pick the right ones, you can earn more than IBOV.

Last week, I said that BRPR3 had a good probability of going up (read forecast here) and that is exactly what happened! BRPR3 gained +5.1% and, in the same period, IBOV gained +3.7%. Therefore, we sold 70% of what we bought and we will continue with the remaining 30% of our position.

Below, you can read a summary about the other stocks that we still have 30% of what we bought:
                     Stock       IBOV      Comments
    RADL3   +7.2%       +4.7%     This trade was closed this week. It initiated in December/14
    MPLU3   +5.5%       +5.1%     Trade initiated in Jan/15
    IGTA3    +11.4%     +6.0%      Trade initiated in Jan/15
    PSSA3    +16.2%     +5.4%      Trade initiated in Feb/15
    BRPR3    +5.1%       +3.7%      Trade initiated in Mar/15

For next week, this is the stock that I believe that has a good expected return compared to its risk:
BRFS3: Start Gain (buy ONLY IF achieves) 63.78 ; Stop Gain (sell 70% of what you buy) +2% ; Stop Loss 60.88
(according to my back-tests this stock has 79% of chance of achieving profit if the trade starts)

Have a great week and show this blog to your friends that invest in Emerging Markets or Brazil

Leo.

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